Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 16.36 and could remain relatively low and level into the weekend.

This Week

Over the next several days our region should see mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with highs in the low to mid 90s. The NWS is showing the potential for some isolated showers over the next few days, but overall Fort Bend County and much of the Brazos River Watershed should see less than 0.25 inches over the next 7 days. It is still to early to tell, but we could see our rain chances increase early next week.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

The National Hurricane Center along with the Weather Prediction Center is continuing to issue advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Barry, which is located over southern Missouri City. Other than Post-Tropical Cyclone Barry, Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Reservoir Status

Below is a summary of the current Reservoir Status.

Gulf System Update 07/11 @ 8AM

Over the past 24 hours, Potential Tropical Cyclone Two has continued to slowly develop and is expected to become a tropical depression later today. Based on this morning’s forecast, it could develop into a Tropical Storm on Friday and possibly a Hurricane late Friday or Saturday morning. There still remains some uncertainty in the ultimate track; however, confidence continues to grow that the system will make landfill near the central part of Louisiana.  Flooding as already occurred in portions of Louisiana with an additional 10 to 15 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches as the result of this system expected over the next several days.
 
Locally, the impacts to Fort Bend County and the areas west of Houston should be minimal. This morning’s forecast is showing our area receiving less than one inch through Tuesday morning. We will continue to monitor for any changes in the track and intensity which can have an impact on final rainfall amounts.
 
Although this system is showing signs of being less impactful to our area, we continue to encourage residents to:

Gulf System Update 07/10 @ 8AM

The National Hurricane Center has increased the chances of Invest 92L developing into a tropical system to 90% over the next 2 days. Yesterday, we saw a shift in the track toward central Louisiana; however, this morning, the modeling data showed a possible shift in the track back to the west closer to Cameron, Louisiana. There are several factors playing a role in the development of this system so there continues to be a considerable amount of uncertainty in the ultimate track.

Based on this morning’s forecasts, the heaviest impacts are still shown to be east of the Greater Houston area with the potential for 10+ inches along the Louisiana Coast with Fort Bend County possibly receiving 1 to 3 inches through Monday. Final rainfall amounts are dependent upon the ultimate path of this system so these estimates are subject to change.

Now that the area of low pressure is in the Gulf, the system has started to become better organized and will continue to do so as it drifts west. As it develops, we could see additional changes in the forecasts, especially over the next 12 to 36 hours. All residents are encouraged to:

Gulf System Update 07/09 @ 8AM

The National Hurricane Center continues to give Invest 92L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical system, possibly a tropical depression or tropical storm. Environmental conditions and water temperatures are expected to be favorable for tropical cyclone development once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico and moves westward across the northern Gulf late Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight the track of the disturbance has generally shifted back to our east possibly moving north along the Texas-Louisiana border this weekend. It is still too early to determine the exact location and magnitude/intensity as several factors could alter the ultimate path and development of this system. Based on this morning’s forecast, the heaviest rainfall potential (9+ inches) is located in western Louisiana with Fort Bend County potentially receiving 1 to 4 inches over the weekend.

Changes in the forecasts could/will continue to vary over the next 24 to 48 hours so all residents are encouraged to:

Weekly Brazos River Outlook, Possible System in the Gulf

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 18.16 feet and continues to fall.

This Week and the Tropics

We are continuing to watch for the potential development of a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. Overnight the threat of development along the Louisiana and Texas coasts have increased; however, at this time there is still a fair amount of uncertainty on the development and its location. At this moment, the NWS has not made any changes in our weekly forecast. Residents, especially those along the Texas and Louisiana coasts, are encouraged to closely monitor the progress of this system as changes in the forecasts could vary over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Based on the current forecasts, the start of this week could be a continuation of the weekend with minimal rain chances and highs hitting the mid 90’s. Our rain chances increase toward the end of the week, but overall the NWS is showing the potential for less than a 0.5 inch over the next 7 days. We will continue to monitor the conditions and changes in the forecasts.

Reservoir Status

Below is a summary of the current Reservoir Status. Overall we continue to see levels in the reservoir fall with the majority of reservoirs around 100% capacity. The only exception is Lake Somerville which continues to be near 200% capacity.

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 23.33 feet (Action Flood Stage) and continues to fall. Based on the forecast, we could drop below Action Stage over the weekend.

This Week

Over the next few days we could continue to see some isolated showers and thunderstorms pop up, but overall the next several days should be partly cloudy to sunny skies with highs around 90°. The NWS is showing the potential for less than a 0.5 inch over the next 7 days.

Reservoir Status

Below is a summary of the current Reservoir Status.

Brazos River / Weather Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 32.14 feet (Action Flood Stage) and is forecasted remain in Action Stage into next week.

This Week

Overnight portions of the Brazos River Watershed received between 1 to 3 inches of rainfall. Based on the rainfall received, we will continue to remain in Acton Stage at the Richmond Gage for an extended period of time. After today, our rain chances diminish with partly cloudy skies and increasingly warmer temperatures throughout the remainder of the week. Rain chances could return the weekend; however, rainfall amounts vary between the various forecasts. The current Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) prepared by NOAA is showing less than 0.5 inches over the next 7 days for most of the lower Brazos River Watershed, including Fort Bend County.

Reservoir Status

Below is a summary of the current Reservoir Status.

June 10 – Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 36.89 feet (Action Flood Stage) and is forecasted to remain elevated above Richmond Gage 35.00 feet through Saturday morning.

This Week

Based on this morning’s forecast, we should continue to see sunny to partly cloudy skies with minimal rain chances, less than 25%, over the next several days. The extended forecast is showing the potential for rain returning this weekend, but the forecasts are showing less than 0.25 inches of rain across the region over the next 7 days.

Reservoir Status

Below is a summary of the current Reservoir Status.

Brazos River Update – 06/05/2019 @ 9 AM

The region continues to remain in a Flash Flood Watch until 7am Thursday morning, with portions of Wharton and Fort Bend Counties in a Flash Flood Watch through 9:45 am today.

Since early this morning, portions of Fort Bend and Wharton Counties have seen a significant amount of rainfall. Preliminary rainfall amounts as high as 9 to 10+ inches in parts of Wharton County has caused a rapid rise on the San Bernard River as well as several creeks and streams. Along the Brazos River watershed we have seen preliminary rainfall amounts between 1 to 4 inches with the heavier amounts downstream of I-10 through central Fort Bend County. The heaviest rainfall should move through the region by this afternoon, but the extended forecast is showing a 40% to 50% chance for rain through Friday morning.

Based on the rainfall received plus the additional rainfall forecasted over the next 24 hours, the WGRFC has updated their forecast for the Brazos River. Based on the 8:10 AM forecast, the Brazos River in Richmond could hit Gage Elevation 37.6 feet on Sunday, June 9. Currently, the Brazos River in Richmond is at Gage Elevation 34.58 feet.

We encourage everyone to stay informed through the National Weather Service and Fort Bend County Office of Homeland Security & Emergency Management.

Severe Weather Update – 06/04/2019 @ 8 AM

Although the National Hurricane Center has reduced the development of Invest 91L to a 40% chance over the next 48 hours, this system will bring excess rainfall across the region over then next couple of days. Based on the conditions, the NWS will place our region, including Fort Bend County, in a Flash Flood Watch from 1 AM Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday.

Based on this morning’s forecast, the region could see widespread rainfall amounts between 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals up to 6 inches. Rainfall rates from this storm could reach 2 to 3 inches per hour which can cause rapid street flooding and creek rises in some areas. As stated by the NWS, these forecasts are subject to change due to the environmental conditions throughout the event. We will continue to monitor and provide updates when possible, but we encourage everyone to stay informed through the National Weather Service and Fort Bend County Office of Homeland Security & Emergency Management as changes in these forecast could occur within a relatively short period of time.