Brazos River Forecast Update – 12/8 @ 11 AM

Over the past 24 hours, much of our area has received between 3 to 5 inches of rainfall with some isolated amounts nearing 6 to 7 inches. Due to the rainfall, we have seen rises in many of our local creeks and streams along with an initial 5-foot jump on the Brazos River. After today, the extended forecast has overcast to clear skies through the middle of next week giving us a brief time to drain out while we wait to see what will occur on the Brazos River. The image below is a summary of the rainfall over northern Fort Bend County as of 10:47 AM from the Harris County Flood Warning System.

With the significant rainfall finished, we will focus on the Brazos River gages as water makes its way from upstream of Hempstead through Richmond. The 9:27AM forecasts show Hempstead peaking at Gage 50.4 on Monday afternoon/evening, San Felipe peaking at Gage 121 on Tuesday morning, and Richmond hitting Gage 44.4 on Thursday morning. Please note that the Richmond forecast does not show a peak; therefore, we could see higher elevations than the current forecast shows. Based on historically flooding events, when Hempstead has hit near Gage 50, we have seen Richmond hit between Gage 48 and 50 a few days later. We do not have as many records with San Felipe, but this matches what we have seen the past 3 years at the San Felipe Gage.

Based on the levels predicted, gravity drainage will be impacted for the next week or two. While the Brazos River is elevated, the extended forecast is currently showing another ½ inch or so of rainfall starting on Wednesday. Even though it appears that we could avoid any significant flooding from the Brazos River, we need to continue to watch the extended forecast for any additional rainfall that could impact our region.