There are two potential weather events that we are watching.
Near Term (Next 48 hours)
The NWS is continuing to show the potential for severe weather over the next 24 hours. Much of the lower Brazos River watershed, downstream of College Station has a slight risk of severe weather with the majority of the state of Texas with at least a marginal risk. The primary hazards include damaging winds, large hail, locally heavy rain, and isolated tornadoes. Much of the upper Brazos River watershed as seen between 1 to 2 inches over the past 24 hours with portions potentially receiving another 1 to 2 inches through Saturday. In Fort Bend County, we have seen most areas receive less than 0.5 inch over the past 24 hours. Based on the current forecasts, portions of the Houston area could see 1 to 3 inches through Saturday.
Long term (Next 7 Days)
Regardless of what the next 48 hours brings, we are watching the development of our next system that could have a significant impacts on the Brazos River Watershed. We should have more information over the weekend, which will be included in our Monday weekly outlook but here is a short summary. This morning’s forecast is showing the potential for the majority of the Brazos River Watershed seeing between 2 to 6 inches over the next 7 days. How this impacts levels on the Brazos River will all depend on what the lower watershed receives over the next 24 hours. Confidence in the current long range forecast is on the lower side but we will continue to monitor the conditions and provide updates as necessary.
Brazos River Forecasts
Based on the actual and forecasted rainfall over the next couple of days, the WGRFC is forecasting the Brazos River to hit Gage Elevation 41 feet in Richmond on Wednesday morning. Depending on how much additional rain we actually receive, we could see shifts in the forecast throughout the weekend.