Based on the amount of potential rainfall, the WGRFC has updated their projections for the Brazos River. The San Felipe Gage is receding; however, the WGRFC is forecasting the Brazos River at San Felipe to rise starting early Saturday morning peaking around Gage Elevation 120.8 feet. This is approximately 1.3 feet higher than San Felipe peaked last night and about 1 foot higher than the peak back on January 8, 2019. Over the past several hours, the Brazos River in Richmond has remained fairly steady and is currently at Gage Elevation 47.38 feet. The 2:53 PM forecast has the Brazos River in Richmond hitting Moderate Flood Stage on Saturday and peaking just below Major Flood Stage at Gage Elevation 49.9 feet on Sunday. This is approximately 3.3 feet higher than what we saw back on January 9, 2019 and approximately 0.1 foot lower than what we experienced back on June 3, 2015. Please note that these forecasts are based on rainfall that is predicted to fall over the next 48 hours rather than the typical 24 hours. The true impacts to the Brazos River will be dependent upon the where and how much rainfall occurs over the next 48 hours.
There has been no significant changes in the NWS’s forecasts for the volume of rain potentially falling across the region. Our region is under a Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening. Starting this evening and running through Saturday evening, Fort Bend County and the majority of our region could experience widespread rainfall amounts between 4 to 8 inches with isolated amounts between 9 to 12 inches. These storms could produce rainfall intensities of 2 to 4 inches per hour.
The exact timing and location of the most severe weather is unknown and can develop/change rapidly, which will have an impact on local drainage as well as levels along the Brazos River. We encourage everyone keep informed by following the Fort Bend Office of Homeland Security & Emergency Management and the National Weather Service Houston/Galveston websites.