Brazos River Update and Weekly Outlook- 5/6/19 at 10:00 AM

Brazos River Forecasts

Over the past 24 hours, we have seen only minor revisions to the forecasts along the Brazos River. As of this morning, the Brazos River in Hempstead is forecasted to peak around Gage 48.10 feet with San Felipe peaking around Gage 120.7 feet. The 9:25 AM update from the WGRFC is giving us a better idea of the potential crest height in Richmond based on current conditions. The forecast is showing the Brazos River reaching Gage 47.4 feet on Friday morning. The current forecast has as falling shortly after the peak; however, the additional rainfall received this week could potential impact the timing of the fall and how long we remain in Minor Flood Stage.

As we mentioned in our previous updates, we are continuing to monitor the next round of severe weather that will potentially bring additional heavy rains into our region. The first weather system is expected to start moving its way through the region today with estimated rainfall amounts between 0.5 to 2 inches over the next 24 hours. This wet trend will continue for the next 7 days, but at this moment there is low confidence in the exact timing and rainfall amounts. Based on the latest forecasts, over the next 7 days much of the lower Brazos River watershed could see widespread rainfall amounts between 5 to 6 inches with the greater Houston area seeing as much as 9 to 10 inches. We will be continually monitoring the conditions and providing additional updates as necessary. With elevated levels and saturated soils, we recommend that everyone stay information by visiting the Fort Bend Office of Homeland Security & Emergency Management website and the National Weather Service Houston/Galveston website for updates as things develop.