Flash Flood Watch / Brazos River Update – 01/02/19 @ 9:45 AM

The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for much of the region until noon on Thursday, January 3. This morning’s forecast is continuing to show the majority of our region receiving between 1 to 3 inches of rainfall with the potential for isolated amounts of 4 to 5 inches. Based on this morning’s forecast, the heaviest rains continue to be to our north and east. With much of our soils still saturated, any rainfall received will quickly be converted to runoff which can potentially cause street ponding and rises in our local watersheds. Final impacts will depend on the final location and volume of rainfall received.

Based on the forecasts, the upper portions of the Brazos River Watershed is expected to receive between 2 to 3 inches with similar chances for isolated amounts between 4 to 5 inches. As of this morning, the WGRFC has forecasted the Brazos River in Hempstead peaking around Gage Elevation 52.4 feet. The current forecast for Richmond shows a similar rise; however, at this moment the forecast ends at Gage Elevation 42.7 feet with no crest shown due to the published forecast window. We will continue to monitor the conditions and provide additional updates as necessary.

River Projections – 12/28

Dear Residents,

With recent heavy rains on Wednesday in the county and North of Houston, the Brazos River has given a new projection of just under 43ft by next Wednesday, January 2, 2019. Currently, the river has spiked to 31ft and continues to rise rapidly. All flood gates will begin to seal up over the weekend and the first part of next week. At 43ft, if reached, flood gates will be gravity sealed off everywhere throughout the county and will be on pumping operations should more rain be projected. At this time, forecasts are showing light rain over the weekend and into Monday. If rain does fall once gates are sealed, be on the look out for increased water levels in channels and detention ponds until pump stations can get levels back to normal. Street ponding while raining will be expected, based on rain intensity, as things progress and flow to the channels. LMS will be out and doing normal inspections over the weekend and into the first part of the week to insure no problems persist in any district.

Brazos River Forecast Update – 12/8 @ 11 AM

Over the past 24 hours, much of our area has received between 3 to 5 inches of rainfall with some isolated amounts nearing 6 to 7 inches. Due to the rainfall, we have seen rises in many of our local creeks and streams along with an initial 5-foot jump on the Brazos River. After today, the extended forecast has overcast to clear skies through the middle of next week giving us a brief time to drain out while we wait to see what will occur on the Brazos River. The image below is a summary of the rainfall over northern Fort Bend County as of 10:47 AM from the Harris County Flood Warning System.

With the significant rainfall finished, we will focus on the Brazos River gages as water makes its way from upstream of Hempstead through Richmond. The 9:27AM forecasts show Hempstead peaking at Gage 50.4 on Monday afternoon/evening, San Felipe peaking at Gage 121 on Tuesday morning, and Richmond hitting Gage 44.4 on Thursday morning. Please note that the Richmond forecast does not show a peak; therefore, we could see higher elevations than the current forecast shows. Based on historically flooding events, when Hempstead has hit near Gage 50, we have seen Richmond hit between Gage 48 and 50 a few days later. We do not have as many records with San Felipe, but this matches what we have seen the past 3 years at the San Felipe Gage.

Based on the levels predicted, gravity drainage will be impacted for the next week or two. While the Brazos River is elevated, the extended forecast is currently showing another ½ inch or so of rainfall starting on Wednesday. Even though it appears that we could avoid any significant flooding from the Brazos River, we need to continue to watch the extended forecast for any additional rainfall that could impact our region.

Brazos River Forecast Update – 12/7 @ 9 AM

The WGRFC has issued a forecast for the majority of the gage locations in the lower Brazos River Watershed. The 7:44 AM published forecast shows the Brazos River in Richmond hitting Gage 42 feet on Wednesday, December 12 around 6 AM. As shown on the graphic, the elevation of 42 feet is at the end of the current forecast window. This means that the current forecast does not necessarily represent the final peak that could occur in Richmond. The final peak will depend on the actual amount of rainfall that will occur in the watershed. We will continue to watch the local conditions in Fort Bend County, but also the conditions upstream. Currently, the WGRFC is forecasting Hempstead to hit 52.1 and San Felipe to hit 120.6.

As of this morning, the NWS is continuing to show heavy rain hitting the Greater Houston Area starting later today. The region has the potential to receive between 2” to 5” with isolated amounts between 8” to 10”. With these totals and the short duration, we have an increased risk of street ponding with local rises in our creeks and streams occurring Friday night. This is particularly the case in areas with a history of ponding and/or poor conveyance.


Brazos River Levels


Due to rainfall upstream of the District in the Brazos River watershed, we are anticipating elevated water levels in the Brazos River and possibly Ditch H. The current forecast is estimating the Brazos River level at the Richmond gauge to be 39.2 feet on Sunday, October 21, 2018. It is possible we could see Richmond gauge at or above 40 feet. The District’s operator and engineer are monitoring and will continue to monitor the Brazos River levels and update the District’s website as necessary.

For additional information regarding current Brazos River levels, you may visit the website of Fort Bend County Office of Emergency Management at http://fbcoem.org.

10/17/18 River Projections

With the current rain throughout Texas and in our area, river projections have began to increase on the Brazos. Right now, projections are 38.4′ which doesn’t pose any threat to District’s levee systems. Based on what we are seeing and with the continued releases upstream, we will probably see a river crest in the low 40s which does seal off gravity flow to all pump stations. After speaking with the County, they believe it will probably stay up for an extended period of time (a week or so) until water levels throughout Texas can drain out. The District and LMS are preparing for a 40’ elevation on the river and going through our Action Stage protocol. Should the river reach 40′, we will pump any rainfall that occurs to make sure we are always at full storage internally. All pump stations are fully operational and ready to go should more rainfall come to the District. There are projections of 2-4” of rain over the next week, which is well under what our pump stations can handle. The District doesn’t anticipate having to run pumps for a long period of time to catch up on internal water levels.

We will continue to monitor the upcoming river heights and give provide updates on this site should things change.