Flash Flood Watch

Based on this morning’s forecast maps for precipitation, we could see between 3 to 6 inches of rainfall within Fort Bend County while the upper portions of the Brazos River watershed, especially the Brenham area, could see closer to 5 to 6 inches of rainfall. There is the possibility of isolated amounts of 8 to 10 inches. With these totals and the short duration, we have an increased risk of street ponding with local rises in our creeks and streams occurring Friday night. This is particularly the case in areas with a history of ponding and/or poor conveyance.

Currently the Brazos River in Richmond is at Gage 18.85 feet with no river forecast published. Based on the precipitation values we could see a rise in the Brazos River through Fort Bend County; however, until we have more certainty on the location of these isolated higher amounts, the actual impacts to the watershed will change. The WGRFC typically uses “past precipitation and the precipitation amounts expected approximately 12 hours into the future from the forecast issuance time” to produce forecasts on the Brazos River. Based on this timing of this event, we could potentially see a forecast published as early as tomorrow morning or afternoon. We will provide additional updates as necessary as things develop.


Below is the update from HCFCD on this weekend’s storms.

Powerful storm system will bring high impact weather to TX starting later today.

Flash Flood Watch has been issued from noon Friday until noon Saturday for all SE TX counties.

Flash Flooding of streets along with significant rises on area bayous, creeks, and rivers to flood levels is possible.

Powerful upper level storm system moving into S CA and NW MX this morning will track generally eastward and into TX over the next 48 hours. SW flow aloft is already spreading clouds across the area with currently best moisture return focused across SC/C TX where scattered showers have already developed. Activity will increase today from the coastal bend northward along the I-35 corridor where favorable moisture transport overlaps with short wave energy aloft. Some of this activity will likely affect our far western and southwestern counties this later this morning into the afternoon hours.

Friday-Saturday:

Excessive rainfall event likely Friday afternoon-Saturday morning resulting in flooding.

A surface cold front currently moving southward is now expected to reach our NW counties around College Station early Friday and then slowly move across SE TX during the day. This front will act as a strong lifting feature to promote widespread showers and thunderstorms within a very favorably moist air mass. In fact models continue to suggest near record/record moisture levels will be in place by Friday afternoon with PWS of 1.8-2.0 inches over much of the area. Forecast soundings show little instability, but loaded with plentiful moisture form the surface into the upper levels indicating convection will be very effective at heavy rainfall production. Unfortunately it appears the slow moving surface front will be nearing the US 59 corridor around the time that maximum parameters for heavy rainfall focus over SE TX. This includes a very strong 45-55kt low level jet which will transport copious moisture into the frontals slope. Additionally, winds aloft become increasing divergent helping to aid lift and vent near surface lift. Add in a slow moving surface boundary and a nearly “tropical air mass” and you pretty much have everything needed for excessive rainfall rates.

Rainfall Amounts:

Widespread rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches appear likely over nearly all of the area with isolated totals of 8-10 inches. It is still somewhat uncertain where those higher isolated totals may occur, but areas along and NW of US 59 may have a slightly greater risk than areas S of US 59. Much of the higher totals will tend to focus closely with the surface front and where it slows at times as it crosses the region. In addition to the overall totals, high hourly rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour will be possible which will lead to rapid urban flooding of street systems.

Hydro:

Forecasted rainfall amounts and the widespread nature of the rainfall pattern strongly support significant rises on area watersheds. Think most basins can handle 6 hour totals of 3-4 inches, but anything greater than about 4 inches in 6 hours is going to likely be cause for concern. Creek, bayou, and river flooding will be possible especially in the San Jacinto, Trinity, and Brazos basins. For Harris County, all of the creeks and bayous will likely see significant rises and exceeding of flood stage levels is possible on some of the watersheds depending on exactly where the heaviest rains fall. Greatest concern at the moment is for the watersheds over the northern half of Harris County, but think all watersheds have about equal chances of seeing significant rises and possible flooding. Usual common flooding locations on Little Cypress Creek and lower South Mayde Creek will likely experience flooding. Some structure flooding will be possible if watersheds exceed their banks or intense rainfall rates overwhelm street systems.

Decision Support

Timing: Friday morning College Station area, mid to late afternoon Houston area through Saturday morning

Amounts: 3-6 inches widespread isolated 8-10 inches

Watersheds: flooding of creeks, bayous, and rivers is possible

Street Flooding: high threat for street flooding

Severe: a few storms late Friday night may become severe near the coast with a tornado threat.

Forecasted Rainfall Amounts:

Friday-Saturday Excessive Rainfall Outlook:

Tuesday: Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical cyclone formation remains possible for the NW Gulf of Mexico late this week.

Residents along the TX coast should closely monitor the progress of this system and have hurricane plans and kits in place.

There has been little change in organization of the tropical wave over the Caribbean Sea overnight. Sporadic deep convection continues to develop in an near what is most likely a mid level low pressure system. Thus far there have not been any surface observations to support any surface low pressure formation. Upper level winds remain fairly strong out of the WSW/W as the system is on the eastern side of a weakening upper level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico. As this upper trough weakens and the tropical wave axis moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico upper level winds will become somewhat more favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone.

The GFS, ECMWF, and CMC models either maintain an open tropical wave or attempt to close off a surface low pressure system along the wave axis in the Thursday and Friday period as the feature moves NW toward the TX coast. It is unclear at this point if the system will be able to close off a surface low, but development chances increase as it nears the TX coast late this week…so things can and will likely change quickly on Thursday and Friday.

Regardless of actual development of a closed low pressure system the main impacts appear to be heavy rainfall and potential flooding. Wet and soggy grounds are already in place over much of coastal TX and additional rainfall is likely both today and Wednesday. Deep tropical moisture with the tropical feature will begin to arrive on the TX coast late Friday with bands of heavy rainfall and gusty winds spreading along the TX coast Friday and into Saturday.

At the moment it is still too early to discuss specific impacts, but the threat for heavy rainfall and potential flooding late this week into this weekend along the entire TX coast is increasing. For now will leave tides, winds, and seas alone and await better trends in any center track and intensity of the feature. Even an open wave axis will likely produce 20-30kts across the NW Gulf waters. This could be a system where much of the adverse conditions will occur to the north and east of any actual surface center.

Forecast confidence toward the end of the week and weekend is low and residents along the TX coast should closely monitor forecasts over the next few days for changes.

Short Term (Tuesday)

Last night the NWS extended the Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM this evening. Based on the forecasts, the heaviest rains should be generally along and south of US-59. These wet conditions will stay with us through Saturday. Much of Fort Bend and Harris Counties could see another 1 to 2 inches today with a total of 2 to 3 inches over the next 7 days. As mentioned above these rainfall amounts could vary depending on the development of Invest 95L.

Notice of Public Hearing on Tax Rate

The FORT BEND COUNTY L.I.D. #14 will hold a public hearing on a proposed tax rate for the tax year 2018 on September 10, 2018 at 3:00 P.M. at One Avalon Place, Sugar Land, Texas 77479. Your individual taxes may increase or decrease, depending on the change in the taxable value of your property in relation to the change in taxable value of all other property and the tax rate that is adopted.

FOR the proposal: Jeff Anderson, Herbert Krog and Sujeeth Draksharam
AGAINST the proposal: None
PRESENT and not voting: None
ABSENT: None

The following table compares taxes on an average residence homestead in this taxing unit last year to taxes proposed on the average residence homestead this year.

Notice of Taxpayers’ Right to Rollback Election

If taxes on the average residence homestead increase by more than eight percent, the qualified voters of the district by petition may require that an election be held to determine whether to reduce the operation and maintenance tax rate to the rollback tax rate under Section 49.236(d), Water Code.

Bob Leared Interests, 713-932-9011

Letter of Map Amendment (LOMA)

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) approved FBCLID No. 14’s request for a Letter of Map Amendment (LOMA) on August 3, 2018. The intent of the LOMA was to remove the Zone “A” designation from all 106 lots that back up to the lakes in the Gardens of Avalon and Waters of Avalon sections. This document can be referred to by any resident affected by the inaccurate mapping that is looking to obtain flood insurance on their property. As mentioned in the documentation provided by FEMA, all of these property owners are eligible for a Preferred Risk Flood Insurance Policy. The approval of the LOMA is effective immediately.

Letter of Map Amendment

The Letter of Map Amendment was filed on behalf of the District to correct a mapping error by FEMA that incorrectly shows rear lots being in mapped Zone “A” within internal lakes. We have submitted the request to correct the error on behalf of the District since several residents have been told by insurance carriers that their properties are in the floodplain.

Letter of Map Amendment (PDF)

What You Should Know About Hurricanes

From Ready.gov

Where Does Stormwater Go?

For more information about the District’s stormwater management plan, please visit: cleanbayous.org.

Did you know that the stormwater currently receives no treatment?

Water that flows into your storm water drainage system goes directly into our creeks, bayous, rivers, and bays. Because standards of water quality affect every resident in your District, remembering “only rain down the drain” and adhering to this approach will help improve the water quality of our streams, rivers and lakes.

Non-allowable discharges, such as out waste, grass clippings, tree trimmings, oils and grease are a violation of a state-issued stormwater permit. Making an illegal discharge into the storm sewer may be punishable by fines and/or water service termination, per your District’s rate order.

Remember, whatever is put down the storm drain is untreated and flows into the Waters of the USA!

If you see any spills or illegal dumping into the storm drains, your District Operator, or Storm Water Solutions should be contacted as soon as possible. Call the Storm Water Solutions 24-hour phone number at 713.935.1044, or you can use cleanbayous.org to file a report.

To find additional information about stormwater quality, please visit www.cleanbayous.org.