Brazos River Update – 5/9/19 at 11:00 AM

Severe Weather Outlook

Starting at 1 PM, the NWS anticipates placing the entire region within a flash flood watch which could run through 7 PM Saturday evening. From this afternoon into Friday morning, the first of two storm systems could make its way through the region with the second round of storms moving through late Friday and running through Saturday evening. Over the next 2 to 3 days, the region could experience widespread rainfall amounts between 5 to 8 inches with isolated amounts between 9 to 12 inches. These storms could produce rainfall intensities of 2 to 4 inches per hour. The exact timing and location of the most severe weather is unknown and can develop/change rapidly, so we encourage everyone keep informed by following the Fort Bend Office of Homeland Security & Emergency Management and the National Weather Service Houston/Galveston websites.

Brazos River Forecast

Late last night we saw the Brazos River in San Felipe crest around Gage Elevation 119.45 feet. The wave will continue to work its way through Fort Bend County, but we anticipate areas upstream of Richmond not impacted by Tuesday’s rain to be currently cresting or crest within the next few hours. Based on the rainfall received on Tuesday night, Richmond remains around Gage Elevation 47.35 feet and will remain elevated through the end of the forecast window, which currently ends on Tuesday morning. The current forecasts only includes the next 24 hours of rainfall. With significant rain in the forecast through Saturday, we could see the timing of the Brazos River receding shift keeping us in Minor Flood Stage through the majority of next week. The impacts to the Brazos River will be dependent upon the where and how much rainfall occurs over the next several days.

Based on rainfall received upstream of Hempstead, we are monitoring additional rises that are occurring at the Bryan and Hempstead Brazos River Gauges as well as ones on the Navasota River. At this time, these additional rises are not forecasted to be higher than peaks experience at these points last week and are not causing additional rises at the San Felipe and Richmond gauges.

Weather Update

This post is a short update on operations in the District.  All permanent pumps are operational at this time and our operator, LMS, has deployed the emergency Gator pumps to supplement our permanent pumping capacity.  LMS and our engineer LJA are working to lower internal water levels in the District in anticipation of potential rainfall in the forecast.  The water level in the internal lakes had risen to approximately elevation 67 mean sea level (msl) overnight.  This morning the internal level was at 65 msl.  Approximately 30 minutes later, the internal level had been reduced to approximately 64.7 msl due to the pumping and efforts of LMS.  Currently, the internal water level is at approximately 63.5 msl and dropping.  The external (Brazos River) elevation at the outfall structure which was approximately 66.7 msl.

LMS has an operator on site and will continue to monitor the pumping.  We anticipate that we will be back to normal lake levels in the District this evening depending on the amount of rainfall received today.  LMS and LJA will continue to keep your Board of Directors, the City and County updated on status.

We encourage our residents to sign up for alerts from the City of Sugar Land and from Fort Bend County.  Also, the City has asked residents to report any damage to them.  You must register with the City’s website in order to post information.

Here is the link to the City’s website www.sugarlandtx.gov/OnlineTownHall.  To register for alerts, please go to https://www.sugarlandtx.gov/718/Emergency-Notification-System.

Emergency Readiness Training

The Entire Board of LID 14 (Mr. Sujeeth Draksharam, Mr. Rashid Khalfe, and Mr. Shaizad A. Chatriwala), along with Fort Bend County Commissioner Precinct 4 Ken DeMerchant, and ABHR legal assistant Rachel Wooten participated with their computers and smart phones in the Fort Bend County Homeland Security & Emergency Management levee improvement district training exercise on Friday, April 26, 2019 in our community at the Avalon Clubhouse.

Listening intently and watching the data presented and on conference call with the District’s engineer, operator and attorney, the Directors and Commissioner DeMerchant trained to prepare for the upcoming hurricane season. The District is ensuring its Emergency Operations Plan is ready for emergencies.

The public is always welcome at our LID Board meetings and we are grateful to be serving our community.

April 29 – Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 37.37 feet (Action Stage). The WGRFC is forecasting the Brazos River in Richmond to hit Gage 38.3 feet on Tuesday, April 30.

This week

After several days of dry sunny weather, the next week could be a mix of cloudy, wet weather. Through Tuesday, we could see some partly sunny to cloudy skies with chances around 30%. Starting Wednesday, our rain chances increase to 70% with the possibility of heavy rain occurring Wednesday and Thursday. The location of the heaviest rain has shifted several times over the past 2 to 3 days, but the current forecast shows the heaviest rainfall occurring in northeast Texas with the potential for 4 to 5 inches. For the Brazos River watershed upstream of Hempstead, the forecasts are showing between 2 to 3 inches with the area downstream of Hempstead receiving 0.5 to 1.5 inches over the next 7 days. We will continue to watch for changes in these forecast, but it is possible that the Brazos River through Richmond could remain elevated in Action Stage, around Gage Elevation 30, through the beginning of next week.

Reservoir Status

Below is a summary of the current Reservoir Status.

Important Harvey Relief Program for Homeowners

Here is important information about a new program the State is administering to help with reimbursement for Hurricane Harvey related repairs. Please contact the GLO office directly if you need help, or Congressman Olson’s office for assistance.


Do you have out-of-pocket expenses from home repairs from Hurricane Harvey? If so, the Texas General Land Office (GLO) just announced they have a program that may help you cover the cost!

The GLO will start accepting applications THIS THURSDAY for the new Homeowner Reimbursement Program. With this program, eligible homeowners can apply to receive up to $50,000 to cover out-of-pocket expenses from Harvey repairs. Folks in Fort Bend and Brazoria Counties who have completed their repairs prior to the application launch date (Thursday, February 28, 2019) are encouraged to apply. Residents of Harris County and the City of Houston are not eligible, but both the city and county will have a similar program for homeowners. Please visit the GLO’s website for more information and to apply. Funds are limited, so folks are encouraged to apply as soon as the application goes live, on Thursday, February 28, 2019. The website has a list of the documents you will need to include with your application. You can also email cdr@recovery.texas.gov or call 1-844-475-5000 if you have any questions about the program. Also, please contact my office at 281-494-2690 if you have any Harvey recovery related questions. My staff is happy to help however they can.

I’m honored to represent you in Congress. For more information or to sign up for my E-newsletter, please visit my website, www.olson.house.gov.

Very respectfully,
Pete Olson

Flash Flood Watch

Based on this morning’s forecast maps for precipitation, we could see between 3 to 6 inches of rainfall within Fort Bend County while the upper portions of the Brazos River watershed, especially the Brenham area, could see closer to 5 to 6 inches of rainfall. There is the possibility of isolated amounts of 8 to 10 inches. With these totals and the short duration, we have an increased risk of street ponding with local rises in our creeks and streams occurring Friday night. This is particularly the case in areas with a history of ponding and/or poor conveyance.

Currently the Brazos River in Richmond is at Gage 18.85 feet with no river forecast published. Based on the precipitation values we could see a rise in the Brazos River through Fort Bend County; however, until we have more certainty on the location of these isolated higher amounts, the actual impacts to the watershed will change. The WGRFC typically uses “past precipitation and the precipitation amounts expected approximately 12 hours into the future from the forecast issuance time” to produce forecasts on the Brazos River. Based on this timing of this event, we could potentially see a forecast published as early as tomorrow morning or afternoon. We will provide additional updates as necessary as things develop.


Below is the update from HCFCD on this weekend’s storms.

Powerful storm system will bring high impact weather to TX starting later today.

Flash Flood Watch has been issued from noon Friday until noon Saturday for all SE TX counties.

Flash Flooding of streets along with significant rises on area bayous, creeks, and rivers to flood levels is possible.

Powerful upper level storm system moving into S CA and NW MX this morning will track generally eastward and into TX over the next 48 hours. SW flow aloft is already spreading clouds across the area with currently best moisture return focused across SC/C TX where scattered showers have already developed. Activity will increase today from the coastal bend northward along the I-35 corridor where favorable moisture transport overlaps with short wave energy aloft. Some of this activity will likely affect our far western and southwestern counties this later this morning into the afternoon hours.

Friday-Saturday:

Excessive rainfall event likely Friday afternoon-Saturday morning resulting in flooding.

A surface cold front currently moving southward is now expected to reach our NW counties around College Station early Friday and then slowly move across SE TX during the day. This front will act as a strong lifting feature to promote widespread showers and thunderstorms within a very favorably moist air mass. In fact models continue to suggest near record/record moisture levels will be in place by Friday afternoon with PWS of 1.8-2.0 inches over much of the area. Forecast soundings show little instability, but loaded with plentiful moisture form the surface into the upper levels indicating convection will be very effective at heavy rainfall production. Unfortunately it appears the slow moving surface front will be nearing the US 59 corridor around the time that maximum parameters for heavy rainfall focus over SE TX. This includes a very strong 45-55kt low level jet which will transport copious moisture into the frontals slope. Additionally, winds aloft become increasing divergent helping to aid lift and vent near surface lift. Add in a slow moving surface boundary and a nearly “tropical air mass” and you pretty much have everything needed for excessive rainfall rates.

Rainfall Amounts:

Widespread rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches appear likely over nearly all of the area with isolated totals of 8-10 inches. It is still somewhat uncertain where those higher isolated totals may occur, but areas along and NW of US 59 may have a slightly greater risk than areas S of US 59. Much of the higher totals will tend to focus closely with the surface front and where it slows at times as it crosses the region. In addition to the overall totals, high hourly rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour will be possible which will lead to rapid urban flooding of street systems.

Hydro:

Forecasted rainfall amounts and the widespread nature of the rainfall pattern strongly support significant rises on area watersheds. Think most basins can handle 6 hour totals of 3-4 inches, but anything greater than about 4 inches in 6 hours is going to likely be cause for concern. Creek, bayou, and river flooding will be possible especially in the San Jacinto, Trinity, and Brazos basins. For Harris County, all of the creeks and bayous will likely see significant rises and exceeding of flood stage levels is possible on some of the watersheds depending on exactly where the heaviest rains fall. Greatest concern at the moment is for the watersheds over the northern half of Harris County, but think all watersheds have about equal chances of seeing significant rises and possible flooding. Usual common flooding locations on Little Cypress Creek and lower South Mayde Creek will likely experience flooding. Some structure flooding will be possible if watersheds exceed their banks or intense rainfall rates overwhelm street systems.

Decision Support

Timing: Friday morning College Station area, mid to late afternoon Houston area through Saturday morning

Amounts: 3-6 inches widespread isolated 8-10 inches

Watersheds: flooding of creeks, bayous, and rivers is possible

Street Flooding: high threat for street flooding

Severe: a few storms late Friday night may become severe near the coast with a tornado threat.

Forecasted Rainfall Amounts:

Friday-Saturday Excessive Rainfall Outlook:

Tuesday: Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical cyclone formation remains possible for the NW Gulf of Mexico late this week.

Residents along the TX coast should closely monitor the progress of this system and have hurricane plans and kits in place.

There has been little change in organization of the tropical wave over the Caribbean Sea overnight. Sporadic deep convection continues to develop in an near what is most likely a mid level low pressure system. Thus far there have not been any surface observations to support any surface low pressure formation. Upper level winds remain fairly strong out of the WSW/W as the system is on the eastern side of a weakening upper level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico. As this upper trough weakens and the tropical wave axis moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico upper level winds will become somewhat more favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone.

The GFS, ECMWF, and CMC models either maintain an open tropical wave or attempt to close off a surface low pressure system along the wave axis in the Thursday and Friday period as the feature moves NW toward the TX coast. It is unclear at this point if the system will be able to close off a surface low, but development chances increase as it nears the TX coast late this week…so things can and will likely change quickly on Thursday and Friday.

Regardless of actual development of a closed low pressure system the main impacts appear to be heavy rainfall and potential flooding. Wet and soggy grounds are already in place over much of coastal TX and additional rainfall is likely both today and Wednesday. Deep tropical moisture with the tropical feature will begin to arrive on the TX coast late Friday with bands of heavy rainfall and gusty winds spreading along the TX coast Friday and into Saturday.

At the moment it is still too early to discuss specific impacts, but the threat for heavy rainfall and potential flooding late this week into this weekend along the entire TX coast is increasing. For now will leave tides, winds, and seas alone and await better trends in any center track and intensity of the feature. Even an open wave axis will likely produce 20-30kts across the NW Gulf waters. This could be a system where much of the adverse conditions will occur to the north and east of any actual surface center.

Forecast confidence toward the end of the week and weekend is low and residents along the TX coast should closely monitor forecasts over the next few days for changes.

Short Term (Tuesday)

Last night the NWS extended the Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM this evening. Based on the forecasts, the heaviest rains should be generally along and south of US-59. These wet conditions will stay with us through Saturday. Much of Fort Bend and Harris Counties could see another 1 to 2 inches today with a total of 2 to 3 inches over the next 7 days. As mentioned above these rainfall amounts could vary depending on the development of Invest 95L.

Notice of Public Hearing on Tax Rate

The FORT BEND COUNTY L.I.D. #14 will hold a public hearing on a proposed tax rate for the tax year 2018 on September 10, 2018 at 3:00 P.M. at One Avalon Place, Sugar Land, Texas 77479. Your individual taxes may increase or decrease, depending on the change in the taxable value of your property in relation to the change in taxable value of all other property and the tax rate that is adopted.

FOR the proposal: Jeff Anderson, Herbert Krog and Sujeeth Draksharam
AGAINST the proposal: None
PRESENT and not voting: None
ABSENT: None

The following table compares taxes on an average residence homestead in this taxing unit last year to taxes proposed on the average residence homestead this year.

Notice of Taxpayers’ Right to Rollback Election

If taxes on the average residence homestead increase by more than eight percent, the qualified voters of the district by petition may require that an election be held to determine whether to reduce the operation and maintenance tax rate to the rollback tax rate under Section 49.236(d), Water Code.

Bob Leared Interests, 713-932-9011

Letter of Map Amendment (LOMA)

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) approved FBCLID No. 14’s request for a Letter of Map Amendment (LOMA) on August 3, 2018. The intent of the LOMA was to remove the Zone “A” designation from all 106 lots that back up to the lakes in the Gardens of Avalon and Waters of Avalon sections. This document can be referred to by any resident affected by the inaccurate mapping that is looking to obtain flood insurance on their property. As mentioned in the documentation provided by FEMA, all of these property owners are eligible for a Preferred Risk Flood Insurance Policy. The approval of the LOMA is effective immediately.

Letter of Map Amendment

The Letter of Map Amendment was filed on behalf of the District to correct a mapping error by FEMA that incorrectly shows rear lots being in mapped Zone “A” within internal lakes. We have submitted the request to correct the error on behalf of the District since several residents have been told by insurance carriers that their properties are in the floodplain.

Letter of Map Amendment (PDF)