Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 8.84. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

We will start the week with elevated rain chances due through Wednesday to a slow-moving front working its way through the region. Once the front passes, our rain chances drop with a return of cool, sunny weather. The cold front will drop our high temperatures in the low to upper 60s and our low temperatures in the low to upper 40s. Toward the weekend, our temperatures will reach highs in the low the mid-70s and lows in the low to upper 50s. Based on the current 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), the Lower Brazos Watershed, including Fort Bend County, could see less than a ½ inch of rain over the next 7 days. The upper Brazos River Watershed could possibly receive 2 to 3 inches over the next 7 days.

Tropical Activity

The National Hurricane Center is currently tracking TS Zeta which has formed east of the Yucatan Peninsula. The current forecast has Zeta reaching Hurricane strength later today or early tomorrow morning as it approaches the Yucatan. It is anticipated to move into the Gulf of Mexico before taking a north, northeastern turn potentially making landfall between central Louisiana and the Florida panhandle. Zeta is not expected to impact southeast Texas.

Reservoir Status

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 11.99 and rising slightly. The Brazos River should peak below Action Stage around Gage Elevation 12.7. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

This week we have a minor chance for showers and scattered thunderstorms on Thursday, but generally this week should consist of sunny to mostly sunny/partly cloudy skies. Our high temperatures will be in the mid- to upper 80s with our low temperatures in the low 60s to low-70s. Based on the current 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), the Lower Brazos Watershed, including Fort Bend County, could see less than a ¼ inch of rain over the next 7 days.

Tropical Activity

The National Hurricane Center is currently tracking 2 storms (TS Gamma and TS Delta) that are in and near the Gulf of Mexico. TS Gamma is currently located north of the Yucatan Peninsula and is anticipated to dissipate off the Yucatan later this week with no impacts to the Texas coast. TS Delta is currently south of the Caribbean Islands moving in a northwest direction. We are continuing to watch TS Delta, but currently it is anticipated to eventually move in a northerly direction making landfall somewhere between Louisiana and the Florida panhandle.

Reservoir Status

Tropical Storm Beta – September 20, 2020

Tropical Storm Beta continues to struggle as it works its way in a west-northwesterly direction toward Matagorda Bay. Based on the current forecast, TS Beta could make landfall near Matagorda Bay as a Tropical Storm on Monday night into Tuesday morning, before make a sharp turn to the northeast. At that time, TS Beta will continue on a slow path over the greater Houston area before making its way over central Louisiana Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Good news is that dry air and a southwesterly wind shear should keep TS Beta from significantly intensifying.  That being said, TS Beta will still bring Tropical Storm force winds to portions of SE Texas with the biggest threat being excessive rainfall and storm surge. The NWS has issued several warning along the Texas coast, including Flash Flood Watches for the majority of the greater Houston Area, including Fort Bend, Harris and Waller Counties.

The current Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) has portions of the lower Brazos River Watershed receiving 2 to 10 inches with areas south of I-10, including Fort Bend County, possibly receiving 6 to 10 inches of rainfall over the next 5 days. The majority of which could fall Monday through Tuesday. Although our drainage systems can typically handle these rainfall amounts over a few days, periods of intense rainfall could cause rapid rises in streets and smaller drainage facilities in portions of the watershed. This is all dependent on where the intense rainfall will occur. The current WGRFC forecasts do not account for rainfall beyond the next 24 hours; therefore, the current forecasts do not show any rises on the Brazos River. We could see a rise in the lower Brazos River Watershed, but at this time, our biggest threat are localized impacts due to high intense rainfall that could occur.

There is low confidence on where the most severe rainfall will occur, but the District’s Operator and Engineer are continually monitoring the conditions and are ready to respond as necessary. Currently, the internal lakes are at their normal operating level and levels on the Brazos River are low. We encourage everyone to stay informed by visiting your favorite local weather source, including the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and West Gulf River Forecast Center. If you have not ready done so, please remember to sign up for Emergency Updates from Fort Bend County.

Tropical Storm Beta – September 19, 2020

Tropical Storm Beta is currently located in the northwest Gulf of Mexico moving in a northly direction around 8 MPH. The storm is anticipated to slowly shift in a more westerly direction later today and possibly reach Hurricane status on Sunday. By Tuesday morning, TS Beta could be a few miles west off Matagorda Bay before turning and moving northeast along the Texas coastline. There continues to be low confidence in the overall storms track and progress after Tuesday morning. The current NHC track has TS Beta off the coast of Freeport on Wednesday morning before picking up some speed and moving out towards Lake Charles on Thursday morning.

The biggest threat of TS Beta continues to be water due to storm surge and heavy rainfall. The heaviest amounts of rain are still anticipated to be along the Texas coast with the possibility of our coastal counties seeing between 8 to 10+ inches through Thursday. Based on the latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), Fort Bend County and our neighboring areas could see between 2 to 6 inches through Thursday morning with the majority of the rainfall occurring on Monday and Tuesday. Due to the speed of this system, this rain is anticipated to fall over the course of a few days which most of our drainage systems should be able to handle. The main issue is periods of intense rainfall that can occur with tropical systems. This bands could bring isolated higher amounts of rainfall creating some localized street ponding and rapid rises in our smaller creeks and drainage systems.

Based on the current forecast and the lack of organization of this system, this is not anticipated to be a Harvey level event, but we need to continue to be weather aware and be prepared to respond. There are still some unknowns with TS Beta and its impacts to the greater Houston area. Although not an official NWS Source, Space City Weather’s 8:22 AM Post has a good summary of TS Beta and its potential impacts to our region.

The District is continuing to monitor the situation. We encourage everyone to stay informed by visiting your favorite local weather source, including the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and West Gulf River Forecast Center. If you have not ready done so, please remember to sign up for Emergency Updates from Fort Bend County.

Tropical Depression No. 22

There remains significant uncertainty the track for Tropical Depression No. 22. We should anticipate more changes in its forecast, but currently the Greater Houston area is within the Cone of Uncertainty. The forecast shows TD 22 moving in a NW direction over the western Gulf of Mexico as it strengthens into a Tropical Storm (Wilfred) today or possibly tomorrow morning. By Saturday, conditions could push TD 22 in a western direction toward the south Texas coast potentially reaching Hurricane Strength as it stalls off the south Texas Coast. This storm due to its movement could bring some Tropical Storm Force Winds t the central and south Texas coastal areas, but water (storm surge and rain) is the biggest threat to this system. These impacts could start as early as Sunday night into Monday morning as squalls begin to approach the coast. The heaviest amounts of rain are currently along and off the coast with 10 to 12 inches and widespread amounts in the 15 to 20 inches over the Gulf of Mexico. The current 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) has the western portions of our Region, including Fort Bend, Harris, and Waller Counties, possibly receiving between 2 to 6 inches over the next 7 days. The majority of this rainfall could occur Sunday evening into Thursday morning. Based on the uncertainty, these rainfall amounts will likely change.

As mentioned, there is currently low confidence in the overall track and development of TD 22 and changes in this forecast are possible. The District’s Engineer and Operator are continuing to monitor the conditions. The District’s facilities are operational and ready if needed.

We encourage everyone to stay informed by visiting your favorite local weather source, including the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and West Gulf River Forecast Center. If you have not ready done so, please remember to sign up for Emergency Updates from Fort Bend County.

 

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 14.19 and rising slightly due to additional rainfall upstream. The Brazos River should peak below Action Stage around Gage Elevation 17.2. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

This week we have minor chances for showers and scattered thunderstorms; however, most of the week we should see mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Our high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to mid-90s with our low temperatures in the low to mid-70s. Based on the current 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), the Lower Brazos Watershed, including Fort Bend County, could see between ¼ and ¾ of an inch over the next 7 days.

Tropical Activity

We are currently in the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season and at this moment the National Hurricane Center several storms and disturbances. The most impactful to the Gulf Coast is Hurricane Sandy that will bring significant rainfall to our neighbors in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. The current storms and disturbances should not impact Southeast Texas.

Reservoir Status

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 25.5. Excessive rainfall upstream of Hempstead has caused the Lower Brazos River to enter Action Stage in Richmond; however, levels on the Brazos River from Hempstead to Richmond are falling. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

Prior to the weekend, the hope was that our first cold front would push through the greater Houston region. It will push through portions of Texas; however, at this time the cold front could fade as it moves toward or through southeast Texas. We will start the week with mostly cloudy skies with slightly elevated rain chances. The weekend we could see sunny to mostly sunny skies with minimal rain chances. Our high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with our low temperatures in the low to mid-70s. There is more heavy rain headed for the Upper Brazos River Watershed; however, this rainfall currently is not anticipated to have major impacts on the Lower Brazos River due to the distance and current reservoir capacity available. Based on the current 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), the Lower Brazos Watershed, including Fort Bend County, could see between ¼ and ¾ of an inch over the next 7 days. The majority of this rainfall could occur between Tuesday and Thursday.

Tropical Activity

We are currently in the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season and at this moment the National Hurricane Center is tracking 2 Tropical Storms (Paulette and Rene) and 2 Disturbances. Currently these systems are not expected to impact the Texas Coast, but since we are in the peak of Hurricane Seasons, we continue to encourage everyone to continue to monitor the Tropics.

Reservoir Status

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 8.97. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

This week should consist of sunny to partly cloudy skies with minimal to no rain chances. Our high temperatures will be in the mid- to upper 90s with our low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Based on the current 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), the Upper Brazos Watershed could see 3 to 4 inches of rain while the Lower Brazos River Watershed, including Fort Bend County, could see less than a ¼ inch of rainfall over the next 7 days.

Tropical Activity

The National Hurricane Center is watching 4 Tropical Disturbances in the Atlantic. Based on information from HCFCD this morning: Global forecast models continue to do very little with this wave as it moves generally westward toward the western Caribbean Sea over the next 48-72 hours. The hurricane models (HMON and HWRF) show more significant development of the wave over the western Caribbean Sea with a landfall of a strong tropical storm over either Belize or the southern Yucatan late this week or this weekend. At this time, mid-level ridging north of 99L should keep it moving generally westward with little potential for moving into the Gulf of Mexico through 5 days. After 5 days the system will likely be located over some portion of central America or southern Mexico. Elsewhere in the tropics, a couple of tropical waves over the far eastern Atlantic and moving off the western coast of Africa both show some potential to develop over the next 5 days. The system along the SE US coast will move generally NE/ENE out to sea.

Reservoir Status

Hurricane Laura Update

Overnight Hurricane Laura continued to strengthen and is now a Category 3 Hurricane. The latest forecast shows Laura making landfall as a Category 3 or 4 Hurricane early Thursday morning somewhere between Port Arthur and Lake Charles. Regardless of the exact landfall location, major damage and life-threatening conditions remain along the Texas/Louisiana Border. Those in that region are encouraged to complete all preparations by 6 PM this evening. For those not within evacuation zones, agencies are encouraging everyone to avoid driving, especially on Hurricane Evacuation Routes, to keep routes clear for those under mandatory evacuations.

Overall Fort Bend County will receive less severe weather than those along the Texas/Louisiana Border. Similar to yesterday’s forecast, Fort Bend County along with many areas on the west of downtown Houston have a 20 to 50% chance of experiencing Tropical Storm Force Winds (1-Minute Average ≥ 39 MPH). Although less damaging than Hurricane Force Winds, TS Winds are still capable of causing downed trees and tree limbs as well as displacing debris and other loose objections. Everyone is encouraged to secure any loose items around structures and remain indoors as the storm passes. Once the storm passes, whether you are clearing debris from your own home or assisting others, remember to proceed with caution. Use proper safety measures when clearing limbs and downed trees and watch for hidden damage such as downed powerlines.

The most significant rainfall continues to remain to our east. The latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) continues to show Fort Bend County receiving around 1 inch of rain with some areas possible receiving isolated amounts closer to 2 inches. According to the NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC), eastern portions of Fort Bend County has a marginal risk (5%) of receiving excessive rainfall amounts causing flash flooding conditions.

As mentioned, the most severe weather should remain well east of Fort Bend County; however, the District along with our District Engineer and Operator are continuing to monitor the situation and are ready to respond as needed. We encourage everyone to stay informed by visiting your favorite local weather source, including the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and West Gulf River Forecast Center. If you have not ready down so, please remember to sign up for Emergency Updates from Fort Bend County.

Weekly Brazos River Outlook / Gulf Tropical Activity

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 8.84. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

This week will all depend on the final tracks and development of TS Marco and TS Laura. TS Marco is currently located in the northern Gulf of Mexico, southeast of the Louisiana/Mississippi Border. TS Marco has weakened and is expected to remain a Tropical Storm as it moves in a west to northwestern direction along the Louisiana coastline over the next 24 to 48 hours. By Late Tuesday into early Wednesday, TS Marco should dissipate into a Depression as it continues to move along the Texas coastline toward Galveston Bay. The more significant threat to SE Texas is TS Laura. Currently TS Laura is moving in a northwest direction across Cuba and should enter the Gulf of Mexico late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Over the past 24 hours, Laura’s path has continued to move west, closer to the Texas/Louisiana Border. The confidence in the overall track is increasing but additional shifts are still possible. Based on the forecasts and models, Laura could make landfill as a Category 2 Hurricane as far west as Galveston Bay (Texas) to as far east as Vermillion Bay (Louisiana). Impacts to the region will all depend on the final development and tracks of both storms.

This week our high temperatures will be in the low to mid- 90s with our low temperatures in the upper 70s to ow 80s. Rainfall amounts will vary depending on the development and tracks of TS Marco and TS Laura. Based on the current 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), the lower Brazos River Watershed, including Fort Bend County, could see less than a 1 inch of rainfall over the next 7 days. Similar to previous weeks and with the Tropical Storm activity, areas across the watershed could see less or slightly higher amounts. The most significant rainfall is located east of the Watershed.

The District along with our District Engineer and Operator are continuing to monitor the conditions throughout the week. We encourage everyone to stay informed by visiting your favorite local weather source, including the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and West Gulf River Forecast Center. If you have not ready down so, please remember to sign up for Emergency Updates from Fort Bend County.

Reservoir Status