Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 10.79 and falling. The Brazos River peaked on Sunday morning after the lower portions of the watershed received between 3 to 6 inches over the weekend. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

After a wet weekend, this week should clear up with the return of sunny, but cooler conditions. A cold front has caused the NWS to place Fort Bend County and the surrounding area in a Freeze warning from midnight tonight through 8 AM Tuesday Morning.

After the initial cold weather today and tomorrow, our temperatures for the remainder of the week should consist of highs in the low/mid-50s to the mid-60s with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. We do have another cold front moving through the region on Wednesday which is bringing higher rain chances Tuesday afternoon/evening into Wednesday afternoon. Overall, the lower Brazos River Watershed, including Fort Bend County could see between ½ to 1 inch of rainfall over the next 7 days.

Reservoir Status

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 8.94. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

This week will start with similar dry conditions; however, the NWS Forecast includes wet conditions the second half of the week with heavy rainfall possible Friday and Saturday. High temperatures over the next 5 days will be as high as the low 80s with low temperatures in the low 50s to low 60s. Over the next 7 days, the lower Brazos River Watershed, including Fort Bend County, could receive 1 to 3 inches.

Reservoir Status

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 8.73. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

This week should continue to consist of sunny to partly cloudy skies with highs in the mid to upper 70s into the low 80s and lows in the upper 40s to mid-60s. Our rain chances remain low over the next 7 days with our highest chances for rain closer into the weekend. Based on the current 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), the Lower Brazos Watershed, including Fort Bend County, could see less than a ¼ inch of rain over the next 7 days.

Tropical Activity

The National Hurricane Center is tracking Hurricane Iota and Tropical Disturbance both located east of Central America. The National Hurricane Center does not expect either of these systems to impact the Texas Coast.

Reservoir Status

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 9.17. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

This week should continue to consist of sunny to mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the low 50s to upper 60s. Our rain chances remain low over the next 7 days with our highest chances for rain closer to Sunday into next Monday. Based on the current 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), the Lower Brazos Watershed, including Fort Bend County, could see less than a ¼ inch of rain over the next 7 days.

Tropical Activity

The National Hurricane Center is currently tracking Hurricane Eta which is currently located northeast of Nicaragua. The system is anticipated to become a Major Hurricane (Cat 3+) as it approaches the Nicaragua/Honduras Coast. Eta has the potential to bring catastrophic wind and heavy rainfall creating life-threating conditions and catastrophic damage to portions of Central America. The system is anticipated to weaken to a Tropical Depression on Wednesday as it works its way across Central America before moving back over the south Caribbean Sea. It has the potential to reform over the Caribbean Sea, but it is not anticipated to impact the Texas coast.

Reservoir Status

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 8.84. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

We will start the week with elevated rain chances due through Wednesday to a slow-moving front working its way through the region. Once the front passes, our rain chances drop with a return of cool, sunny weather. The cold front will drop our high temperatures in the low to upper 60s and our low temperatures in the low to upper 40s. Toward the weekend, our temperatures will reach highs in the low the mid-70s and lows in the low to upper 50s. Based on the current 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), the Lower Brazos Watershed, including Fort Bend County, could see less than a ½ inch of rain over the next 7 days. The upper Brazos River Watershed could possibly receive 2 to 3 inches over the next 7 days.

Tropical Activity

The National Hurricane Center is currently tracking TS Zeta which has formed east of the Yucatan Peninsula. The current forecast has Zeta reaching Hurricane strength later today or early tomorrow morning as it approaches the Yucatan. It is anticipated to move into the Gulf of Mexico before taking a north, northeastern turn potentially making landfall between central Louisiana and the Florida panhandle. Zeta is not expected to impact southeast Texas.

Reservoir Status

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 11.99 and rising slightly. The Brazos River should peak below Action Stage around Gage Elevation 12.7. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

This week we have a minor chance for showers and scattered thunderstorms on Thursday, but generally this week should consist of sunny to mostly sunny/partly cloudy skies. Our high temperatures will be in the mid- to upper 80s with our low temperatures in the low 60s to low-70s. Based on the current 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), the Lower Brazos Watershed, including Fort Bend County, could see less than a ¼ inch of rain over the next 7 days.

Tropical Activity

The National Hurricane Center is currently tracking 2 storms (TS Gamma and TS Delta) that are in and near the Gulf of Mexico. TS Gamma is currently located north of the Yucatan Peninsula and is anticipated to dissipate off the Yucatan later this week with no impacts to the Texas coast. TS Delta is currently south of the Caribbean Islands moving in a northwest direction. We are continuing to watch TS Delta, but currently it is anticipated to eventually move in a northerly direction making landfall somewhere between Louisiana and the Florida panhandle.

Reservoir Status

Tropical Storm Beta – September 20, 2020

Tropical Storm Beta continues to struggle as it works its way in a west-northwesterly direction toward Matagorda Bay. Based on the current forecast, TS Beta could make landfall near Matagorda Bay as a Tropical Storm on Monday night into Tuesday morning, before make a sharp turn to the northeast. At that time, TS Beta will continue on a slow path over the greater Houston area before making its way over central Louisiana Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Good news is that dry air and a southwesterly wind shear should keep TS Beta from significantly intensifying.  That being said, TS Beta will still bring Tropical Storm force winds to portions of SE Texas with the biggest threat being excessive rainfall and storm surge. The NWS has issued several warning along the Texas coast, including Flash Flood Watches for the majority of the greater Houston Area, including Fort Bend, Harris and Waller Counties.

The current Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) has portions of the lower Brazos River Watershed receiving 2 to 10 inches with areas south of I-10, including Fort Bend County, possibly receiving 6 to 10 inches of rainfall over the next 5 days. The majority of which could fall Monday through Tuesday. Although our drainage systems can typically handle these rainfall amounts over a few days, periods of intense rainfall could cause rapid rises in streets and smaller drainage facilities in portions of the watershed. This is all dependent on where the intense rainfall will occur. The current WGRFC forecasts do not account for rainfall beyond the next 24 hours; therefore, the current forecasts do not show any rises on the Brazos River. We could see a rise in the lower Brazos River Watershed, but at this time, our biggest threat are localized impacts due to high intense rainfall that could occur.

There is low confidence on where the most severe rainfall will occur, but the District’s Operator and Engineer are continually monitoring the conditions and are ready to respond as necessary. Currently, the internal lakes are at their normal operating level and levels on the Brazos River are low. We encourage everyone to stay informed by visiting your favorite local weather source, including the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and West Gulf River Forecast Center. If you have not ready done so, please remember to sign up for Emergency Updates from Fort Bend County.

Tropical Storm Beta – September 19, 2020

Tropical Storm Beta is currently located in the northwest Gulf of Mexico moving in a northly direction around 8 MPH. The storm is anticipated to slowly shift in a more westerly direction later today and possibly reach Hurricane status on Sunday. By Tuesday morning, TS Beta could be a few miles west off Matagorda Bay before turning and moving northeast along the Texas coastline. There continues to be low confidence in the overall storms track and progress after Tuesday morning. The current NHC track has TS Beta off the coast of Freeport on Wednesday morning before picking up some speed and moving out towards Lake Charles on Thursday morning.

The biggest threat of TS Beta continues to be water due to storm surge and heavy rainfall. The heaviest amounts of rain are still anticipated to be along the Texas coast with the possibility of our coastal counties seeing between 8 to 10+ inches through Thursday. Based on the latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), Fort Bend County and our neighboring areas could see between 2 to 6 inches through Thursday morning with the majority of the rainfall occurring on Monday and Tuesday. Due to the speed of this system, this rain is anticipated to fall over the course of a few days which most of our drainage systems should be able to handle. The main issue is periods of intense rainfall that can occur with tropical systems. This bands could bring isolated higher amounts of rainfall creating some localized street ponding and rapid rises in our smaller creeks and drainage systems.

Based on the current forecast and the lack of organization of this system, this is not anticipated to be a Harvey level event, but we need to continue to be weather aware and be prepared to respond. There are still some unknowns with TS Beta and its impacts to the greater Houston area. Although not an official NWS Source, Space City Weather’s 8:22 AM Post has a good summary of TS Beta and its potential impacts to our region.

The District is continuing to monitor the situation. We encourage everyone to stay informed by visiting your favorite local weather source, including the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and West Gulf River Forecast Center. If you have not ready done so, please remember to sign up for Emergency Updates from Fort Bend County.

Tropical Depression No. 22

There remains significant uncertainty the track for Tropical Depression No. 22. We should anticipate more changes in its forecast, but currently the Greater Houston area is within the Cone of Uncertainty. The forecast shows TD 22 moving in a NW direction over the western Gulf of Mexico as it strengthens into a Tropical Storm (Wilfred) today or possibly tomorrow morning. By Saturday, conditions could push TD 22 in a western direction toward the south Texas coast potentially reaching Hurricane Strength as it stalls off the south Texas Coast. This storm due to its movement could bring some Tropical Storm Force Winds t the central and south Texas coastal areas, but water (storm surge and rain) is the biggest threat to this system. These impacts could start as early as Sunday night into Monday morning as squalls begin to approach the coast. The heaviest amounts of rain are currently along and off the coast with 10 to 12 inches and widespread amounts in the 15 to 20 inches over the Gulf of Mexico. The current 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) has the western portions of our Region, including Fort Bend, Harris, and Waller Counties, possibly receiving between 2 to 6 inches over the next 7 days. The majority of this rainfall could occur Sunday evening into Thursday morning. Based on the uncertainty, these rainfall amounts will likely change.

As mentioned, there is currently low confidence in the overall track and development of TD 22 and changes in this forecast are possible. The District’s Engineer and Operator are continuing to monitor the conditions. The District’s facilities are operational and ready if needed.

We encourage everyone to stay informed by visiting your favorite local weather source, including the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and West Gulf River Forecast Center. If you have not ready done so, please remember to sign up for Emergency Updates from Fort Bend County.

 

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 14.19 and rising slightly due to additional rainfall upstream. The Brazos River should peak below Action Stage around Gage Elevation 17.2. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

This week we have minor chances for showers and scattered thunderstorms; however, most of the week we should see mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Our high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to mid-90s with our low temperatures in the low to mid-70s. Based on the current 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), the Lower Brazos Watershed, including Fort Bend County, could see between ¼ and ¾ of an inch over the next 7 days.

Tropical Activity

We are currently in the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season and at this moment the National Hurricane Center several storms and disturbances. The most impactful to the Gulf Coast is Hurricane Sandy that will bring significant rainfall to our neighbors in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. The current storms and disturbances should not impact Southeast Texas.

Reservoir Status