Weekend Severe Weather

The NWS has issued a Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday evening. According to the forecast, a slow moving upper low pressure system should move through the region with the potential of producing widespread heavy rainfall. The most severe areas, which includes parts of Fort Bend County, could potentially receive between 3 to 4 inches of rain with isolated amounts exceeding 6 inches over the next 24 hours with rainfall intensities between 1 to 3 inches per hour. The lower Brazos River watershed from Waco to Freeport could receive widespread rainfall amounts between 2 to 3 inches.

From Jeff Lindner with the Harris County Flood Control District:

A strong storm system will move across SE TX on Saturday with a complex of thunderstorms likely to develop and move slowly across SE TX. Parameters will be in place for heavy to excessive rainfall as this complex of storms crosses the area. Deep tropical moisture combined with a diffluent upper air patter aloft, and warm rainfall processes all point to excessive short term rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour. Line of storms may slow as it near and moves south of the I-10 corridor Saturday afternoon and this would only increase the flash flooding threat.

Rainfall amounts on Saturday will average 1-3 inches with isolated totals of 6 inches or more. Much of this rainfall will fall in a short period of time maximizing run-off potential. While grounds are not particularly wet, the potential for intense rainfall rates will likely produce a high street flooding threat. Rises on area creeks and bayou will also be possible. Most creeks and bayous will be able to handle the 1-3 inches, but if the 6 inch isolated totals fall over certain watersheds, then some flooding would be possible.

Based on the current forecasts, the latest WGRFC data shows the potential for a Minor to Moderate river event occurring within the Brazos/Navasota Watershed. This is only a forecasted potential scenario and not an immediate flood threat from the Brazos River. The extents and specific location(s) will depend on the final rainfall amounts received. The WGRFC latest forecast shows the Brazos River in Richmond rising to at least Gage Elevation 18.2 feet, but could enter Action Stage toward the end of the week. We will continue to watch this system and the conditions throughout the weekend.

The immediate threat from this event is the possibility of flash flooding within streets and our smaller drainage systems. Our major channels could experience rapid rises leading to flooding along those streams; however, the impacts to larger facilities and the Brazos River will vary depending on the actual rainfall amounts and intensities. We encourage everyone to follow good flood safety standards and stay informed through trusted sources such as the National Weather Service, Harris County Flood Control, and the Fort Bend County Office of Homeland Security & Emergency Management.

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 13.01 and falling. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

The beginning of the week should consist of sunny to partly cloudy skies with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the low 70s. Our rain chances remain low throughout the majority of the week with our highest chances for rain on Thursday and Friday (20% to 40%). The extended forecast does show some additional rainfall over the weekend into the beginning of next week; however, the confidence in the extended forecast remains low. The current Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) shows the upper portions of the Brazos River, upstream of Hempstead, receiving 1.5 to 3 inches of rain with the lower portions, including Fort Bend County, receiving less than 1 to 1.5 inches of rain over the next 7 days.

Reservoir Status

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 16.48 and falling. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

This week’s forecast includes mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with highs in the mid to upper 80s. We are expecting a couple of cold fronts to push through the region on Tuesday and Friday night. Ultimately these fronts could lead to a clear and cooler weekend. With the passing fronts, our rain chances are increased on Tuesday and Friday into Saturday morning. The current Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) shows the upper portions of the Brazos River, upstream of Hempstead, receiving less than 3/4 inch of rain with the lower portions, including Fort Bend County, receiving less than ½ inch of rain over the next 7 days. The confidence in the extended forecast for the end of the week is low so final rainfall amounts through Saturday will vary.

Reservoir Status

Hurricane Preparedness Week (May 3 through May 9)

This week is Hurricane Preparedness Week. Although our flood risk is just as elevated outside of Hurricane Season, this week is a good reminder on how we should prepare for one of our most dangerous natural disasters. Regardless of the seasonal predictions, it only takes one storm to change your life and community. Tropical cyclones are among nature’s most powerful and destructive phenomena. If you live in an area prone to tropical cyclones, you need to be prepared. Learn how during Hurricane Preparedness Week (May 3-9, 2020) by visiting hurricanes.gov/prepare.

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 18.01 and falling. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

This week should consist of mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with highs in the low to mid-80s and lows in the low 60s to low 70s. Our rain chances remain low for the majority of the week except for Tuesday evening into Wednesday afternoon. Based on the forecasts, the heaviest rainfall is to our northeast outside of the Brazos River Watershed. The current Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) shows the upper portions of the Brazos River, upstream of Hempstead, receiving less than ½ inch of rain with the lower portions, including Fort Bend County, receiving less than 1 inch of rain over the next 7 days. The majority of this rainfall occurs from the storms possibly moving through the region Tuesday through Wednesday.

Reservoir Status

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 20.6. The WGRFC forecast shows the Brazos River through Fort Bend County falling below Action Stage later today. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

Most of our heavy storms remained north of I-10 in Montgomery and northern Harris County. The upper Brazos River watershed did receive some additional rainfall; however, the latest WGRFC Brazos River Forecast for San Felipe and Richmond shows the river levels flatting out later this week. The overall trend continues to show the Brazos River falling. This week we should see sunny to partly cloudy skies with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s. Our rain chances are minimal throughout the week except for Wednesday when we have another possible round of severe thunderstorms with the most severe weather remaining to our north, northeast. The latest forecast shows the upper portions of the Brazos River (Waco to Hempstead) possibly seeing up to an inch of rainfall while the lower portions of the Brazos possibly seeing 0.1 to 0.5 inches over the next 7 days. The vast majority of this falling on Wednesday.

Reservoir Status

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 17.77. Based on the amount of rainfall that fell upstream of Hempstead, the WGRFC forecast shows the Brazos River through Fort Bend County rising into Action Stage on Wednesday, peaking around Gage Elevation 27.1 on Friday. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

The most severe weather from last week’s storms stayed north of our Region with portions of the upper Brazos River Watershed receiving between 1 to 3 inches of rain. For much of the lower Brazos River Watershed, south of Hempstead, last week ended sunny with minimal amounts of rain (less than ¼ inch). Our dry, sunny weather will continue through the majority of this week with highs in the low to mid-70s and lows in the low to mid-50s. Although there is uncertainty in the forecast, our next highest chance for rain will be Friday through Sunday. The current forecast shows the majority of the Brazos River Watershed, including Fort Bend County, seeing a ¼ inch or less of precipitation over the next 7 days.

Reservoir Status

Teleconference Information for Board Meeting

For the District’s regular meeting on April 13, 2020, convening a quorum of the Board at one location is difficult or impossible as a result of the ongoing state of disaster and state of emergency pertaining to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Board will conduct this meeting by telephone conference and videoconference rather than by physical quorum pursuant to Texas Government Code Section 551.125. Members of the public are entitled to participate and address the board during the meeting using the following participation information:

To participate by telephone conference please use: Dial 866-677-2133, Participant Code 83688707#

To participate by video conference please use the following Cisco Webex link, which may also be accessed through the District’s website at www.fbclid14.com: https://bit.ly/2UTR17n, password 41320meeting

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 23.7. Based on the weekend rainfall, the Brazos River in Richmond experienced a 1-foot rise; however, it continues to fall. The WGRFC forecast shows that the Brazos River in Richmond falling out of Action Stage on Thursday morning. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

After a relatively beautiful 2nd half of the weekend, our weather conditions will continue to be on a warming trend with partly cloudy skies and slight rain chances through Thursday. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s to low 90s into Wednesday before our next cold front arrives bringing our highs into the mid to upper 60s to the mid to upper 70s through the weekend. The confidence in the forecast beyond Thursday is low. Based on the current forecasts, the lower Brazos River watershed could see between 1.0 to 2.0 inches of rainfall over the next 7 days. The forecasts show the majority of that rainfall occurring Thursday through Saturday.

Reservoir Status

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 27.89. The WGRFC forecast shows that the Brazos River in Richmond peaked around Gage Elevation 27.97 early this morning and should start to fall. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

The region has some minimal rain chances today with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies through Wednesday. High temperatures for the majority of the week should be in the upper 70s to low 80s with our low temperatures in the mid-50s to upper 60s. The extended forecast does show an increased chance for rain starting on Thursday and possibly running into early next week. Based on the NWS WPC 7-Day QPF, the upper portions of the Brazos River Watershed, from Lake Whitney (Upstream of Waco) to Hempstead could see approximately 2 to 2.5 inches. The current forecast shows these rainfall amounts decreasing downstream with Fort Bend County potentially receiving 1.5 to 1.75 inches over the next 7 days. The majority of this rainfall could occur Friday to Sunday. The confidence in the extended forecast remains low. It is too early to know the accuracy of these rainfall amounts and its potential impacts on the Brazos River, but based on the current forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated over the next 7 to 10 days. We will continue to monitor the forecasts for any changes that occur as we approach the middle to end of the week.

Early April Outlook

The NWS Weather Prediction Center has issued/updated their Outlook to start the month of April. Based on the forecast, we have a higher probability of seeing below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation to start the month of April. From NWS Houston/Galveston Office: “The early April weather pattern is forecast to be more cloudy & wet. More frequent western weather disturbance passages will thicken up clouds, produce more precipitation. This will create a “cooling” effect & may provide some relief to our recent drought conditions.”

Reservoir Status

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 15.71 and rising based on the weekend rainfall and upstream reservoir releases. The WGRFC anticipates the Brazos River reaching Action Stage on Tuesday morning and peaking around Gage Elevation 31.1 feet on Friday morning. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

After several days of wet weather, the Region along with much of the State of Texas will see warmer, sunnier weather. Highs for the week should be in the mid to upper 80s with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s before our next cold front potentially arrives on Sunday. Rain chances remain low over the next several days with our highest chance for rain occurring tomorrow. The NWS forecast is showing the majority of the Brazos River Watershed including Fort Bend County seeing less than ¼ inch of rainfall over the next 5 to 7 days.

Reservoir Status