Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 25.5. Excessive rainfall upstream of Hempstead has caused the Lower Brazos River to enter Action Stage in Richmond; however, levels on the Brazos River from Hempstead to Richmond are falling. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

Prior to the weekend, the hope was that our first cold front would push through the greater Houston region. It will push through portions of Texas; however, at this time the cold front could fade as it moves toward or through southeast Texas. We will start the week with mostly cloudy skies with slightly elevated rain chances. The weekend we could see sunny to mostly sunny skies with minimal rain chances. Our high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with our low temperatures in the low to mid-70s. There is more heavy rain headed for the Upper Brazos River Watershed; however, this rainfall currently is not anticipated to have major impacts on the Lower Brazos River due to the distance and current reservoir capacity available. Based on the current 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), the Lower Brazos Watershed, including Fort Bend County, could see between ¼ and ¾ of an inch over the next 7 days. The majority of this rainfall could occur between Tuesday and Thursday.

Tropical Activity

We are currently in the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season and at this moment the National Hurricane Center is tracking 2 Tropical Storms (Paulette and Rene) and 2 Disturbances. Currently these systems are not expected to impact the Texas Coast, but since we are in the peak of Hurricane Seasons, we continue to encourage everyone to continue to monitor the Tropics.

Reservoir Status

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 8.97. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

This week should consist of sunny to partly cloudy skies with minimal to no rain chances. Our high temperatures will be in the mid- to upper 90s with our low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Based on the current 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), the Upper Brazos Watershed could see 3 to 4 inches of rain while the Lower Brazos River Watershed, including Fort Bend County, could see less than a ¼ inch of rainfall over the next 7 days.

Tropical Activity

The National Hurricane Center is watching 4 Tropical Disturbances in the Atlantic. Based on information from HCFCD this morning: Global forecast models continue to do very little with this wave as it moves generally westward toward the western Caribbean Sea over the next 48-72 hours. The hurricane models (HMON and HWRF) show more significant development of the wave over the western Caribbean Sea with a landfall of a strong tropical storm over either Belize or the southern Yucatan late this week or this weekend. At this time, mid-level ridging north of 99L should keep it moving generally westward with little potential for moving into the Gulf of Mexico through 5 days. After 5 days the system will likely be located over some portion of central America or southern Mexico. Elsewhere in the tropics, a couple of tropical waves over the far eastern Atlantic and moving off the western coast of Africa both show some potential to develop over the next 5 days. The system along the SE US coast will move generally NE/ENE out to sea.

Reservoir Status

Hurricane Laura Update

Overnight Hurricane Laura continued to strengthen and is now a Category 3 Hurricane. The latest forecast shows Laura making landfall as a Category 3 or 4 Hurricane early Thursday morning somewhere between Port Arthur and Lake Charles. Regardless of the exact landfall location, major damage and life-threatening conditions remain along the Texas/Louisiana Border. Those in that region are encouraged to complete all preparations by 6 PM this evening. For those not within evacuation zones, agencies are encouraging everyone to avoid driving, especially on Hurricane Evacuation Routes, to keep routes clear for those under mandatory evacuations.

Overall Fort Bend County will receive less severe weather than those along the Texas/Louisiana Border. Similar to yesterday’s forecast, Fort Bend County along with many areas on the west of downtown Houston have a 20 to 50% chance of experiencing Tropical Storm Force Winds (1-Minute Average ≥ 39 MPH). Although less damaging than Hurricane Force Winds, TS Winds are still capable of causing downed trees and tree limbs as well as displacing debris and other loose objections. Everyone is encouraged to secure any loose items around structures and remain indoors as the storm passes. Once the storm passes, whether you are clearing debris from your own home or assisting others, remember to proceed with caution. Use proper safety measures when clearing limbs and downed trees and watch for hidden damage such as downed powerlines.

The most significant rainfall continues to remain to our east. The latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) continues to show Fort Bend County receiving around 1 inch of rain with some areas possible receiving isolated amounts closer to 2 inches. According to the NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC), eastern portions of Fort Bend County has a marginal risk (5%) of receiving excessive rainfall amounts causing flash flooding conditions.

As mentioned, the most severe weather should remain well east of Fort Bend County; however, the District along with our District Engineer and Operator are continuing to monitor the situation and are ready to respond as needed. We encourage everyone to stay informed by visiting your favorite local weather source, including the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and West Gulf River Forecast Center. If you have not ready down so, please remember to sign up for Emergency Updates from Fort Bend County.

Weekly Brazos River Outlook / Gulf Tropical Activity

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 8.84. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

This week will all depend on the final tracks and development of TS Marco and TS Laura. TS Marco is currently located in the northern Gulf of Mexico, southeast of the Louisiana/Mississippi Border. TS Marco has weakened and is expected to remain a Tropical Storm as it moves in a west to northwestern direction along the Louisiana coastline over the next 24 to 48 hours. By Late Tuesday into early Wednesday, TS Marco should dissipate into a Depression as it continues to move along the Texas coastline toward Galveston Bay. The more significant threat to SE Texas is TS Laura. Currently TS Laura is moving in a northwest direction across Cuba and should enter the Gulf of Mexico late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Over the past 24 hours, Laura’s path has continued to move west, closer to the Texas/Louisiana Border. The confidence in the overall track is increasing but additional shifts are still possible. Based on the forecasts and models, Laura could make landfill as a Category 2 Hurricane as far west as Galveston Bay (Texas) to as far east as Vermillion Bay (Louisiana). Impacts to the region will all depend on the final development and tracks of both storms.

This week our high temperatures will be in the low to mid- 90s with our low temperatures in the upper 70s to ow 80s. Rainfall amounts will vary depending on the development and tracks of TS Marco and TS Laura. Based on the current 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), the lower Brazos River Watershed, including Fort Bend County, could see less than a 1 inch of rainfall over the next 7 days. Similar to previous weeks and with the Tropical Storm activity, areas across the watershed could see less or slightly higher amounts. The most significant rainfall is located east of the Watershed.

The District along with our District Engineer and Operator are continuing to monitor the conditions throughout the week. We encourage everyone to stay informed by visiting your favorite local weather source, including the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and West Gulf River Forecast Center. If you have not ready down so, please remember to sign up for Emergency Updates from Fort Bend County.

Reservoir Status

Tropical Depression 14 – 08/20 11 AM Update

The National Hurricane Center has started issuing Advisories on Tropical Depression No. 14, which is currently located east of Honduras in the Caribbean Sea. The NHC anticipates TD 14 continuing to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea potentially becoming a Tropical Storm later today. The latest forecast shows it moving across the Yucatan Peninsula over the weekend and entering the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, potentially moving toward the Texas Coast early to middle of next week. It is too early to know the exact location of landfall and the impacts / strength of this system, but everyone along the Texas Coast are encouraged to closely monitor the development of this system and review local Hurricane Preparedness Plans.

The District along with our District Engineer and Operator are continuing to monitor the conditions throughout the week and over the Weekend. We encourage everyone to stay informed by visiting your favorite local weather source, including the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and West Gulf River Forecast Center. If you have not already done so, please remember to sign up for Emergency Updates from Fort Bend County.

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 8.86. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

This week should be similar to last week with sunny to mostly sunny skies with minimal to no rain chances.  Our high temperatures will be in the mid- to upper 90s with our low temperatures in the low 70s. Based on the current 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), the lower Brazos River Watershed, including Fort Bend County, could see less than a ¼ inch of rainfall over the next 7 days.

Increased Atlantic Activity

Over the past 24 to 48 hours we have seen an increased amount of activity in the Atlantic. The NHC is currently tracking 2 disturbances in the Atlantic that are moving in a westerly direction toward the United States. Tropical Disturbance No.1, Invest 97L, moved into the eastern Caribbean Sea overnight and continues to push west. The NHC gives this system a 70% chance of developing into a Tropical System in the next 5 Days. An area of high pressure near Bermuda could push this system further west toward the western Caribbean coming close to the Yucatan Peninsula over the weekend. Once it reaches that point, an area of low pressure of the Eastern/Central United States could pull this system in a more northerly direction toward the Mississippi Valley.  Tropical Disturbance No. 2, Invest 98L, is behind Invest 97L, moving through the Atlantic. The NHC gives this system a 90% chance of developing into a Tropical System in the next 5 Days. The current round of modeling shows Invest 98L continuing in a westerly direction. While Invest 97L should follow a path south of the Caribbean Islands, Invest 98L is currently being shown to travel directly over the islands or slightly north towards Florida. It is too early to tell if and how these systems will impact the Texas Coast, but we are continuing to monitor the conditions. There is the potential that one of these systems moves into the Gulf of Mexico, but the exact location is unknown.

The District along with our District Engineer and Operator are continuing to monitor the conditions throughout the week. We encourage everyone to stay informed by visiting your favorite local weather source, including the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and West Gulf River Forecast Center. If you have not ready down so, please remember to sign up for Emergency Updates from Fort Bend County.

Reservoir Status

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 8.6. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

This week should be similar to the best several days. We have some rain changes throughout the week, but overall, the week should consist of sunny to mostly sunny skies. Our high temperatures will be in the mid-90s with our low temperatures in the upper 70s. Based on the current 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), the lower Brazos River Watershed, including Fort Bend County, could see less than a ¼ inch of rainfall over the next 7 days.

Hurricane Season

The Atlantic Hurricane Season is been relatively active consisting of 9 named storms; however, we are currently in a lull. Historically, as we move through August into September, our tropical activity increases. What the remainder of the 2020 Hurricane Season will bring to the Texas Gulf Coast is unknown, but now is great time to assess your preparedness.

Reservoir Status

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 9.53. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

Tropical Storm Hanna has caused major flooding in portions of South Texas and along the Rio Grande Valley with the watershed receiving over 15 inches of rainfall over the weekend. Across our Region, including Fort Bend County, Hanna produced between 2 to 4.5 inches with some isolated areas receiving closer to 5 to 6 inches. These higher amounts were primarily located in southeast Houston. This week our rain chances continue with a 50 to 75% chance for showers through Thursday. Our high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with our low temperatures in the upper 70s. Based on the current 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), the lower Brazos River Watershed, including Fort Bend County, could see between ¼ to ¾ inches of rainfall over the next 7 days. The majority of this rainfall could occur today through Thursday.

Tropical Activity

The NHC is continuing to watch a potential disturbance in the Atlantic which has a 90% Chance of Developing into a Tropical System over the next 5 days. The current models suggest this system could work its way west toward the United States before turning north along the Florida Coast. It is too early to have 100% confidence in the current modeling, so we will continue to monitor the development of this system.

Reservoir Status

Update on Tropical Storm Hanna and Tropical Storm Gonzalo

Last night TD No. 8 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Hanna with Maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Development could continue with Hanna potentially reaching maximum sustained winds around 65 mph before making landfill south of Corpus Christi Saturday afternoon.

With the ultimate track shifting south, our biggest threat in the Greater Houston area will be rainfall that occurs from outer bands as Hanna moves toward the Coast. Today through Sunday, Hanna could produce periods of heavy rains with much of our Region seeing widespread amounts between 1 to 3 inches with isolated amounts of 8+ inches. Based on information from the NWS, these higher amounts should remain to our southwest; however, we will continue to monitor the conditions has the impacts could shift as Hanna approaches and moves onshore. As with any heavy rainfall in the Houston area, the Region could see some street ponding and rises in some of our creek and streams; however, the current forecasts do not call for significant, widespread street or stream flooding.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo

The majority of everyone’s focus continues to be TS Hanna, but we are all still watching TS Gonzalo that is continuing to move west toward the Caribbean. The NHC shows TS Gonzalo possibly becoming a Category 1 Hurricane as it approaches the Lesser Antilles; however, their forecast continues to show TS Gonzalo losing strength and dissipating as it moves south of the Dominican Republic.

Beyond Gonzalo

There is an additional disturbance off the Coast of Guinea near the Cabo Verde Islands. Currently, the NHC gives this system a 30% chance of moving across the Atlantic and becoming a Tropical System. It is still too early to tell how this system might develop and what impacts it might have on the United States, but we are continuing to watch this system in addition to Hanna and Gonzalo.

The District along with our District Engineer and Operator are continuing to monitor the conditions and changes in the forecast and are prepared to mobilize as needed. We encourage everyone to stay informed by visiting your favorite local weather source, including the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and West Gulf River Forecast Center. If you have not ready down so, please remember to sign up for Emergency Updates from Fort Bend County.