Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 11.9. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

The main story for this week is the possibility of some tropical activity forming in and moving across the Gulf of Mexico this week. The exact impacts and locations are still uncertain, but the closest system will bring some much-needed rain to portions of southeast Texas. For the next 7 days, high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. The exact amount of precipitation from the tropical activity is unclear, but the 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) shows the lower portions of the Brazos River watershed receiving between 0.5 and 1.25 inches of rainfall over the next 7 days.

Tropical Outlook

From our partners at HCFCD, here is a summary of the two disturbances we are tracking:

  • System Closest to Texas Coast (NHC Disturbance No. 3): Tropical wave that has been moving across the Gulf of Mexico is located just off the upper TX coast this morning. Radar images from Lake Charles and Houston indicate that a weak area of surface low pressure has formed south of Sabine Pass and is moving toward the WNW. This feature will make landfall along the upper TX coast later today with a corresponding increase in showers and thunderstorms. Some of the rainfall will be heavy, especially near the coast and south of I-10. No additional development of this feature is likely before moving inland.
  • System North of Cuba (NHC Disturbance No. 1) : A tropical wave near eastern Cuba will move WNW into the SE Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, the central Gulf on Wednesday, and the NW Gulf Thursday into Friday. While the system is currently disorganized and there are no signs of any surface low pressure, conditions in the central and western Gulf of Mexico appear generally favorable for some slight development of this wave later this week. There is some weak model support in the global models and some of their ensemble runs that suggest weak low pressure may develop near the TX coast as the wave axis begins to move inland on Friday. NHC currently indicated a 20% chance of development Wed-Fri with this feature over the central and NW Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, periods of showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy rainfall will be possible Friday/Saturday along with increasing winds and seas near the coast and offshore.

With the current Tropical Activity, the District is coordinator with their Engineer and Operator who is watching the conditions for impacts to the District.

Please continue to watch your local forecasts throughout the week through trusted sources such as the National Weather ServiceWest Gulf River Forecast Center, and the Fort Bend County Office of Homeland Security & Emergency Management.

Reservoir Status

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 11.16. The Brazos River is slightly rising due to rainfall and releases that occurred upstream of Bryan/College Station over the past week or so. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

The excessive heat continues this week with limited to no chance for rain through the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 90s and lows in the mid to upper 70s. Based on the NWS 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), the Brazos River Watershed, including Fort Bend County, should see less than 0.1 inch of rainfall over the next 7 days.

Reservoir Status

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 9.37. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

We will start the week with slightly elevated rain chances (25% to 50%) with the highest chance for rain on Tuesday. The remainder of the week should include Sunny to Partly Cloudy Skies with highs in the mid to upper 90s and lows in the mid to upper 70s. Based on the NWS 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), the lower Brazos River Watershed, including Fort Bend County, should see less than ½ of rainfall with portions of the upper watershed potentially receiving up to 1.5 inches over the next 7 days.

Reservoir Status

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 10.7. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

After a round of heavy rainfall, this week will include warm and dry, but humid weather. Our high temperatures will hit the low to mid 90s with heat index values reaching between 100° and 105° through Thursday. Based on the NWS 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, the majority of the Brazos River Watershed should receive less than ½ inch of rainfall over the next 7 days.

Reservoir Status

NWS Houston/Galveston Update: Heavy Rain and Strong Storms Possible Later Today and Tonight

Fort Bend County Levee Improvement District 14 is actively monitoring the potential for heavy rainfall to move through the region Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. Below is an update from the NWS Houston/Galveston Office.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon, but then a line of strong thunderstorms will develop this evening and slowly move through the area later this evening. There is a Flash Flood Watch in effect from 7pm this evening through 7am Wednesday morning.

Overview

There will be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon today mainly south of I-10 that may produce isolated spots of 1 to 2 inches. However, the main concern will be from a line of storm thunderstorms that will develop over the northwestern portion of the region this evening and slowly move eastward through tomorrow morning. Widespread rainfall through Wednesday morning will average between 2 and 4 inches with isolated high-end amounts between 6 and 8 inches possible. The WPC has placed much of SE TX in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall later today and tonight, and we have issued a Flash Flood Watch from 7pm this evening through 7am Wednesday morning. In addition to the heavy rain threat, the SPC has placed portions of the area in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms this evening and tonight with hail and strong winds possible. Confidence is high that rain will develop, but confidence in timing and location remains moderate to low since much of the activity will be driven by small scale features.

Urban Flash Flood Messaging

Heavy rainfall is forecast for portions of Southeast Texas, including highly urbanized areas like the Houston metropolitan area. Based on forecast conditions, NWS Houston will be utilizing the following urban flash flood messaging for this event:

Generally: Street Flooding (Anticipating Moderate Rainfall Rates; 1-2″/hour)

  • Drive with caution. Cars may flood in low-lying areas. Ponding on roadways may increase risk of hydroplaning.
  • Pay attention to the weather. Monitor the NWS, your local media, HCFCD and other official weather information sources.
  • Rain may move repeatedly across the same area, causing a rapid rise on creeks and bayous. However, creeks and bayous are not likely to exceed their banks.

Isolated: “Turn Around, Don’t Drown” Flash Flooding (Anticipating High Rainfall Rates; 2-4″/hour)

  • Turn Around, Don’t Drown. Isolated underpasses or low-water crossings may be life-threatening.
  • Monitor the NWS, your local media, HCFCD and other official weather information sources.

The District encourages everyone to follow good flood safety standards and stay informed through trusted sources such as the National Weather Service, West Gulf River Forecast Center, and the Fort Bend County Office of Homeland Security & Emergency Management.

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 9.64. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

After a couple of dry weeks, the weekend brought some much-needed rain to portions of southeast Texas. Our wet pattern will continue for the majority of the week with the possibility of heavy rainfall occurring through Thursday. Our temperatures will drop slightly through the week with highs in the mid to upper 80s to low 90s and our low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. The NWS 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) shows portions of the lower Brazos River potentially receiving between 2 to 3 inches of rain over the next 7 days. Based on the forecast, Fort Bend County could see approximately 1 to 2 inches of rainfall over the next 7 days. Similar to the weekend’s showers and thunderstorms, there is the potential for some areas to receive higher rainfall amounts along with rainfall intensities between 2 to 3 inches per hour. Areas receiving these rainfall intensities could see some street flooding.

Reservoir Status

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 10.23 and falling. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

This week the majority of the Brazos River Watershed should see sunny to mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid to low 90s and lows in the mid to low 70s. Dry conditions will continue which could have an impact on the drought conditions for the region. There is a small chance for scattered showers on Tuesday, but our best chance for rain will be the weekend. Similar to last week , the NWS 7-Day QPF shows the lower Brazos River, including Fort Bend County, receiving less than ¼ inch over the next 7 days.

Reservoir Status

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 13.16 and falling. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

This week the majority of the Brazos River Watershed should see sunny to mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper mid to upper 90s and lows in the mid to upper 70s. The NWS does anticipate issuing a heat advisory on Tuesday as portions the Region could see heat indices above 105°. Our rain chances remain low except for Wednesday when a cool front pushes through on Tuesday evening/night. Even with our increased rain changes on Wednesday, the NWS 7-Day QPF shows the lower Brazos River, including Fort Bend County, receiving less than ¼ inch over the next 7 days.

Reservoir Status

Cristobal Update – June 4

NWS Tropical Depression Cristobal Briefing – Thursday, June 4, 2020 (PDF)

We are continuing to monitor the development of now Tropical Depression Cristobal. Currently, Cristobal continues to be inland over the Mexico/Guatemala border moving in the easterly direction. The National Hurricane Center 10:00 AM forecast shows TD Cristobal starting to move in a more northerly direction later today. As it approaches the open waters of the Gulf, the forecast shows TD Cristobal regaining Tropical Storm strength by Saturday. There continues to be some uncertainty in the overall path and impacts of Cristobal, but over the past 24 hours, the National Hurricane Center has focused their forecasts showing Cristobal reaching the Louisiana Coastline Sunday night into Monday Morning. Although we cannot specifically rule out impacts to Southeast Texas, the current path could mean minimal impacts to Fort Bend County and the Brazos River Watershed. The most severe weather, including heavy rain, would be on the “wet” or east side of the storm’s center.

The NWS Quantitative Precipitation Forecast includes both rainfall associated with Cristobal as well as rainfall not directly associated with the storm. Based on the forecast, the most severe rainfall is located over portions of the Gulf Coast, east of Texas. Based on the 7-Day QPF, the lower Brazos River could see less than ½ inch over the next 7 days. These rainfall amounts could change based on the actual development and path of Cristobal.

Based on the amount of rainfall received on Wednesday, we did see the Brazos River in Richmond flatten out; however, as of this morning the Brazos River from Hempstead to Rosharon continues to fall. By the weekend, levels should be at or slightly below our historical average for this time of the year.

We will continue to monitor the development of this system and provide updates. We encourage everyone to continue to monitor the forecasts published by the National Hurricane Center and stay informed through the Houston/Galveston NWS Office, the West Gulf River Forecast Center, and the Fort Bend County Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Management.

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 21.24 and falling. The WGRFC predicts that the Brazos River through Richmond will fall out of Action Stage later today. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

The current forecast includes a mixture of sunny to partly cloudy skies with a chance for scatter showers and thunderstorms throughout the week. Our high temperatures should be in the upper 80s to low 90s with our low temperatures in the low the mid-70s. The NWS 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) shows the majority of the Brazos River Watershed receiving less than ½ inch with some areas possibly receiving closer to ¾ inch.

All eyes are focused on possible tropical development in the western portion of the Gulf of Mexico. Remnants of Tropical Storm Amanda (East Pacific System) are anticipated to move across Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula over the next couple of days. As this system moves into the Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center gives it an 80% chance for tropical cyclone formation. If it forms, it would be named Cristobal. Although confidence has increased in its development, the overall strength and track is still unknown. Some modeling suggests this system could become a Tropical Storm to a moderate hurricane by the beginning of next week moving in a north or northeastern direction; however, until it moves into the Gulf and a center forms, the confidence remains low. LJA will continue to monitor the development of this system and provide updates as we approach the weekend. We encourage everyone to continue to monitor the forecasts published by the National Hurricane Center and stay informed through the Fort Bend County Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Management.

Reservoir Status