Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 10.23 and falling. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

This week the majority of the Brazos River Watershed should see sunny to mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid to low 90s and lows in the mid to low 70s. Dry conditions will continue which could have an impact on the drought conditions for the region. There is a small chance for scattered showers on Tuesday, but our best chance for rain will be the weekend. Similar to last week , the NWS 7-Day QPF shows the lower Brazos River, including Fort Bend County, receiving less than ¼ inch over the next 7 days.

Reservoir Status

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 13.16 and falling. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

This week the majority of the Brazos River Watershed should see sunny to mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper mid to upper 90s and lows in the mid to upper 70s. The NWS does anticipate issuing a heat advisory on Tuesday as portions the Region could see heat indices above 105°. Our rain chances remain low except for Wednesday when a cool front pushes through on Tuesday evening/night. Even with our increased rain changes on Wednesday, the NWS 7-Day QPF shows the lower Brazos River, including Fort Bend County, receiving less than ¼ inch over the next 7 days.

Reservoir Status

Cristobal Update – June 4

NWS Tropical Depression Cristobal Briefing – Thursday, June 4, 2020 (PDF)

We are continuing to monitor the development of now Tropical Depression Cristobal. Currently, Cristobal continues to be inland over the Mexico/Guatemala border moving in the easterly direction. The National Hurricane Center 10:00 AM forecast shows TD Cristobal starting to move in a more northerly direction later today. As it approaches the open waters of the Gulf, the forecast shows TD Cristobal regaining Tropical Storm strength by Saturday. There continues to be some uncertainty in the overall path and impacts of Cristobal, but over the past 24 hours, the National Hurricane Center has focused their forecasts showing Cristobal reaching the Louisiana Coastline Sunday night into Monday Morning. Although we cannot specifically rule out impacts to Southeast Texas, the current path could mean minimal impacts to Fort Bend County and the Brazos River Watershed. The most severe weather, including heavy rain, would be on the “wet” or east side of the storm’s center.

The NWS Quantitative Precipitation Forecast includes both rainfall associated with Cristobal as well as rainfall not directly associated with the storm. Based on the forecast, the most severe rainfall is located over portions of the Gulf Coast, east of Texas. Based on the 7-Day QPF, the lower Brazos River could see less than ½ inch over the next 7 days. These rainfall amounts could change based on the actual development and path of Cristobal.

Based on the amount of rainfall received on Wednesday, we did see the Brazos River in Richmond flatten out; however, as of this morning the Brazos River from Hempstead to Rosharon continues to fall. By the weekend, levels should be at or slightly below our historical average for this time of the year.

We will continue to monitor the development of this system and provide updates. We encourage everyone to continue to monitor the forecasts published by the National Hurricane Center and stay informed through the Houston/Galveston NWS Office, the West Gulf River Forecast Center, and the Fort Bend County Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Management.

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 21.24 and falling. The WGRFC predicts that the Brazos River through Richmond will fall out of Action Stage later today. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

The current forecast includes a mixture of sunny to partly cloudy skies with a chance for scatter showers and thunderstorms throughout the week. Our high temperatures should be in the upper 80s to low 90s with our low temperatures in the low the mid-70s. The NWS 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) shows the majority of the Brazos River Watershed receiving less than ½ inch with some areas possibly receiving closer to ¾ inch.

All eyes are focused on possible tropical development in the western portion of the Gulf of Mexico. Remnants of Tropical Storm Amanda (East Pacific System) are anticipated to move across Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula over the next couple of days. As this system moves into the Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center gives it an 80% chance for tropical cyclone formation. If it forms, it would be named Cristobal. Although confidence has increased in its development, the overall strength and track is still unknown. Some modeling suggests this system could become a Tropical Storm to a moderate hurricane by the beginning of next week moving in a north or northeastern direction; however, until it moves into the Gulf and a center forms, the confidence remains low. LJA will continue to monitor the development of this system and provide updates as we approach the weekend. We encourage everyone to continue to monitor the forecasts published by the National Hurricane Center and stay informed through the Fort Bend County Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Management.

Reservoir Status

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 16.57 and rising from the rainfall the watershed received over the past 48 to 72 hours. The WGRFC predicts that the Brazos River through Richmond will peak below Action Stage over the next week. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

Memorial Weekend Recap

The past 72 hours has been active across portions of the State; however, actual rainfall amounts were slightly below the forecast for the majority of the Brazos River Watershed. Overall, the majority of the Brazos River Watershed received between 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain with peak amounts closer to 3 to 4 inches over the past 72 hours. The peak rainfall amounts occurred a portion of Austin County near Bellville and a portion of the Navasota River watershed. This system has caused rises on the Brazos River to occur from Waco to Freeport, but all gages have peaked or are currently predicted to peak in or below Action Stage.

This Week

This week should consist of sunny to partly cloudy skies with highs in the upper 80s and lows in upper 60s. Our rain chances remain low over the next 7 days except for Thursday when a round of scattered showers and thunderstorms could work their way through the Region. The NWS 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) shows the majority of the Brazos River Watershed receiving less than ½ inch over the next 7 days with a potential peak of 1 to 1.5 inches upstream of Bryan/College Station.

Reservoir Status

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 12.95 and rising from our Friday and Saturday storms. The WGRFC predicts that the Brazos River through Richmond will peak around Gage Elevation 17.4 feet on Friday. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

Weekend Rain Recap

The weekend storms brought heavy rainfall across the region with the heaviest amounts falling south of I-10. 4 to 6 inches within 2 to 3 hours fell over parts of Sugar Land and Missouri City causing street ponding and rapid raises in several streams. Over the two days, northeastern Fort Bend County received 6 to 7 inches with the remainder of Fort Bend County receiving between 1 to 3 inches. The Brazos River Watershed upstream of Fort Bend County received less than 1.5 inches over the past 72 hours. This rainfall is causing minor flood conditions on parts of the Navasota River; however, the Brazos River should stay below Action Stage from Bryan/College Station to Freeport. Through Fort Bend County, the forecasted peak is near our historical averages for the Month of May.

This Week

Most of this week should consist of sunny to partly cloudy skies with highs in the low to mid-90s and lows in the low to mid-70s. In addition to the warmer weather, our rain chances through Friday remain low. The extended forecast has increased rain chances from Friday through the middle of next week with the possibility scattered showers and thunderstorms, but the confidence remains low in the forecast for the Memorial Day Weekend. The NWS 7 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) shows the majority of the Brazos River Watershed receiving less than 0.5 inches over the next 7 days.

Reservoir Status

Weekend Severe Weather

The NWS has issued a Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday evening. According to the forecast, a slow moving upper low pressure system should move through the region with the potential of producing widespread heavy rainfall. The most severe areas, which includes parts of Fort Bend County, could potentially receive between 3 to 4 inches of rain with isolated amounts exceeding 6 inches over the next 24 hours with rainfall intensities between 1 to 3 inches per hour. The lower Brazos River watershed from Waco to Freeport could receive widespread rainfall amounts between 2 to 3 inches.

From Jeff Lindner with the Harris County Flood Control District:

A strong storm system will move across SE TX on Saturday with a complex of thunderstorms likely to develop and move slowly across SE TX. Parameters will be in place for heavy to excessive rainfall as this complex of storms crosses the area. Deep tropical moisture combined with a diffluent upper air patter aloft, and warm rainfall processes all point to excessive short term rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour. Line of storms may slow as it near and moves south of the I-10 corridor Saturday afternoon and this would only increase the flash flooding threat.

Rainfall amounts on Saturday will average 1-3 inches with isolated totals of 6 inches or more. Much of this rainfall will fall in a short period of time maximizing run-off potential. While grounds are not particularly wet, the potential for intense rainfall rates will likely produce a high street flooding threat. Rises on area creeks and bayou will also be possible. Most creeks and bayous will be able to handle the 1-3 inches, but if the 6 inch isolated totals fall over certain watersheds, then some flooding would be possible.

Based on the current forecasts, the latest WGRFC data shows the potential for a Minor to Moderate river event occurring within the Brazos/Navasota Watershed. This is only a forecasted potential scenario and not an immediate flood threat from the Brazos River. The extents and specific location(s) will depend on the final rainfall amounts received. The WGRFC latest forecast shows the Brazos River in Richmond rising to at least Gage Elevation 18.2 feet, but could enter Action Stage toward the end of the week. We will continue to watch this system and the conditions throughout the weekend.

The immediate threat from this event is the possibility of flash flooding within streets and our smaller drainage systems. Our major channels could experience rapid rises leading to flooding along those streams; however, the impacts to larger facilities and the Brazos River will vary depending on the actual rainfall amounts and intensities. We encourage everyone to follow good flood safety standards and stay informed through trusted sources such as the National Weather Service, Harris County Flood Control, and the Fort Bend County Office of Homeland Security & Emergency Management.

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 13.01 and falling. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

The beginning of the week should consist of sunny to partly cloudy skies with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the low 70s. Our rain chances remain low throughout the majority of the week with our highest chances for rain on Thursday and Friday (20% to 40%). The extended forecast does show some additional rainfall over the weekend into the beginning of next week; however, the confidence in the extended forecast remains low. The current Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) shows the upper portions of the Brazos River, upstream of Hempstead, receiving 1.5 to 3 inches of rain with the lower portions, including Fort Bend County, receiving less than 1 to 1.5 inches of rain over the next 7 days.

Reservoir Status

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 16.48 and falling. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

This week’s forecast includes mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with highs in the mid to upper 80s. We are expecting a couple of cold fronts to push through the region on Tuesday and Friday night. Ultimately these fronts could lead to a clear and cooler weekend. With the passing fronts, our rain chances are increased on Tuesday and Friday into Saturday morning. The current Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) shows the upper portions of the Brazos River, upstream of Hempstead, receiving less than 3/4 inch of rain with the lower portions, including Fort Bend County, receiving less than ½ inch of rain over the next 7 days. The confidence in the extended forecast for the end of the week is low so final rainfall amounts through Saturday will vary.

Reservoir Status

Hurricane Preparedness Week (May 3 through May 9)

This week is Hurricane Preparedness Week. Although our flood risk is just as elevated outside of Hurricane Season, this week is a good reminder on how we should prepare for one of our most dangerous natural disasters. Regardless of the seasonal predictions, it only takes one storm to change your life and community. Tropical cyclones are among nature’s most powerful and destructive phenomena. If you live in an area prone to tropical cyclones, you need to be prepared. Learn how during Hurricane Preparedness Week (May 3-9, 2020) by visiting hurricanes.gov/prepare.

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 18.01 and falling. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

This week should consist of mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with highs in the low to mid-80s and lows in the low 60s to low 70s. Our rain chances remain low for the majority of the week except for Tuesday evening into Wednesday afternoon. Based on the forecasts, the heaviest rainfall is to our northeast outside of the Brazos River Watershed. The current Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) shows the upper portions of the Brazos River, upstream of Hempstead, receiving less than ½ inch of rain with the lower portions, including Fort Bend County, receiving less than 1 inch of rain over the next 7 days. The majority of this rainfall occurs from the storms possibly moving through the region Tuesday through Wednesday.

Reservoir Status