Brazos River Update – 5/9/19 at 11:00 AM

Severe Weather Outlook

Starting at 1 PM, the NWS anticipates placing the entire region within a flash flood watch which could run through 7 PM Saturday evening. From this afternoon into Friday morning, the first of two storm systems could make its way through the region with the second round of storms moving through late Friday and running through Saturday evening. Over the next 2 to 3 days, the region could experience widespread rainfall amounts between 5 to 8 inches with isolated amounts between 9 to 12 inches. These storms could produce rainfall intensities of 2 to 4 inches per hour. The exact timing and location of the most severe weather is unknown and can develop/change rapidly, so we encourage everyone keep informed by following the Fort Bend Office of Homeland Security & Emergency Management and the National Weather Service Houston/Galveston websites.

Brazos River Forecast

Late last night we saw the Brazos River in San Felipe crest around Gage Elevation 119.45 feet. The wave will continue to work its way through Fort Bend County, but we anticipate areas upstream of Richmond not impacted by Tuesday’s rain to be currently cresting or crest within the next few hours. Based on the rainfall received on Tuesday night, Richmond remains around Gage Elevation 47.35 feet and will remain elevated through the end of the forecast window, which currently ends on Tuesday morning. The current forecasts only includes the next 24 hours of rainfall. With significant rain in the forecast through Saturday, we could see the timing of the Brazos River receding shift keeping us in Minor Flood Stage through the majority of next week. The impacts to the Brazos River will be dependent upon the where and how much rainfall occurs over the next several days.

Based on rainfall received upstream of Hempstead, we are monitoring additional rises that are occurring at the Bryan and Hempstead Brazos River Gauges as well as ones on the Navasota River. At this time, these additional rises are not forecasted to be higher than peaks experience at these points last week and are not causing additional rises at the San Felipe and Richmond gauges.