Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 9.28. Due to rainfall that occurred in the upper portions of the watershed, we are seeing slight rises within the Brazos. Through Fort Bend County, we should remain below Richmond Gage 10. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River is anticipated.

This Week

Based on the forecasts, we will start the week warming back up in to the mid to high 80s and possibly into the low 90s before another cold pushes through our region on Wednesday. We have increased chances for rain over the next 3 days with our highest chance for rain occurring late Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. Throughout Wednesday our rain chances decrease with a sunny to partly cloudy conditions Thursday through Saturday. Overall, the 7-day precipitation forecast is showing the upper portions of the Brazos River watershed (Bryan/College Station/Brenham) receiving 2 to 2.5 inches of rain with the lower portions, through Fort Bend County, receiving around 1.5 inches.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

The National Hurricane Center is watching 2 disturbances located in the Atlantic. A third disturbance is located near the west coast of Central America. It is anticipated to move in a west to northwesterly direction across Honduras, Southern Belize and Northern Guatemala. We are watching this disturbances for any changes in its path; however, at this time it is not expected to impact our region.

Based on the forecasts, we do have the potential for increased tropical moisture due to the disturbance over the weekend, possible Sunday, and into early next week. It is too early to tell exactly how and if this disturbance will move through the western portion of the Gulf of Mexico, but the current forecasts are showing this system being potentially being pushed east of our region moving toward the Louisiana coast. This would keep much of the heavy rainfall east of Fort Bend County and the lower Brazos River watershed. Borrowing from HCFCD’s morning update:

NHC is currently monitoring this area for tropical cyclone development (20% chance over the next 5 days) and how organized this system becomes will ultimately determine rain chances for the upcoming weekend into early next week. A strong trough will likely be approaching the area early next week and if tropical moisture from the SW Gulf can become entrained into this feature, heavy rainfall would certainly be possible. Should a more well defined tropical system organize and track toward the Louisiana coast, then much of the heavy rainfall would be carried just east of our area. Plenty of time to watch and fine tune the forecast for this weekend into early next week.