Tropical Depression 14 – 08/20 11 AM Update

The National Hurricane Center has started issuing Advisories on Tropical Depression No. 14, which is currently located east of Honduras in the Caribbean Sea. The NHC anticipates TD 14 continuing to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea potentially becoming a Tropical Storm later today. The latest forecast shows it moving across the Yucatan Peninsula over the weekend and entering the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, potentially moving toward the Texas Coast early to middle of next week. It is too early to know the exact location of landfall and the impacts / strength of this system, but everyone along the Texas Coast are encouraged to closely monitor the development of this system and review local Hurricane Preparedness Plans.

The District along with our District Engineer and Operator are continuing to monitor the conditions throughout the week and over the Weekend. We encourage everyone to stay informed by visiting your favorite local weather source, including the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and West Gulf River Forecast Center. If you have not already done so, please remember to sign up for Emergency Updates from Fort Bend County.

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 8.86. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

This week should be similar to last week with sunny to mostly sunny skies with minimal to no rain chances.  Our high temperatures will be in the mid- to upper 90s with our low temperatures in the low 70s. Based on the current 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), the lower Brazos River Watershed, including Fort Bend County, could see less than a ¼ inch of rainfall over the next 7 days.

Increased Atlantic Activity

Over the past 24 to 48 hours we have seen an increased amount of activity in the Atlantic. The NHC is currently tracking 2 disturbances in the Atlantic that are moving in a westerly direction toward the United States. Tropical Disturbance No.1, Invest 97L, moved into the eastern Caribbean Sea overnight and continues to push west. The NHC gives this system a 70% chance of developing into a Tropical System in the next 5 Days. An area of high pressure near Bermuda could push this system further west toward the western Caribbean coming close to the Yucatan Peninsula over the weekend. Once it reaches that point, an area of low pressure of the Eastern/Central United States could pull this system in a more northerly direction toward the Mississippi Valley.  Tropical Disturbance No. 2, Invest 98L, is behind Invest 97L, moving through the Atlantic. The NHC gives this system a 90% chance of developing into a Tropical System in the next 5 Days. The current round of modeling shows Invest 98L continuing in a westerly direction. While Invest 97L should follow a path south of the Caribbean Islands, Invest 98L is currently being shown to travel directly over the islands or slightly north towards Florida. It is too early to tell if and how these systems will impact the Texas Coast, but we are continuing to monitor the conditions. There is the potential that one of these systems moves into the Gulf of Mexico, but the exact location is unknown.

The District along with our District Engineer and Operator are continuing to monitor the conditions throughout the week. We encourage everyone to stay informed by visiting your favorite local weather source, including the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and West Gulf River Forecast Center. If you have not ready down so, please remember to sign up for Emergency Updates from Fort Bend County.

Reservoir Status

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 8.6. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

This week should be similar to the best several days. We have some rain changes throughout the week, but overall, the week should consist of sunny to mostly sunny skies. Our high temperatures will be in the mid-90s with our low temperatures in the upper 70s. Based on the current 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), the lower Brazos River Watershed, including Fort Bend County, could see less than a ¼ inch of rainfall over the next 7 days.

Hurricane Season

The Atlantic Hurricane Season is been relatively active consisting of 9 named storms; however, we are currently in a lull. Historically, as we move through August into September, our tropical activity increases. What the remainder of the 2020 Hurricane Season will bring to the Texas Gulf Coast is unknown, but now is great time to assess your preparedness.

Reservoir Status

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 9.53. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

Tropical Storm Hanna has caused major flooding in portions of South Texas and along the Rio Grande Valley with the watershed receiving over 15 inches of rainfall over the weekend. Across our Region, including Fort Bend County, Hanna produced between 2 to 4.5 inches with some isolated areas receiving closer to 5 to 6 inches. These higher amounts were primarily located in southeast Houston. This week our rain chances continue with a 50 to 75% chance for showers through Thursday. Our high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with our low temperatures in the upper 70s. Based on the current 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), the lower Brazos River Watershed, including Fort Bend County, could see between ¼ to ¾ inches of rainfall over the next 7 days. The majority of this rainfall could occur today through Thursday.

Tropical Activity

The NHC is continuing to watch a potential disturbance in the Atlantic which has a 90% Chance of Developing into a Tropical System over the next 5 days. The current models suggest this system could work its way west toward the United States before turning north along the Florida Coast. It is too early to have 100% confidence in the current modeling, so we will continue to monitor the development of this system.

Reservoir Status

Update on Tropical Storm Hanna and Tropical Storm Gonzalo

Last night TD No. 8 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Hanna with Maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Development could continue with Hanna potentially reaching maximum sustained winds around 65 mph before making landfill south of Corpus Christi Saturday afternoon.

With the ultimate track shifting south, our biggest threat in the Greater Houston area will be rainfall that occurs from outer bands as Hanna moves toward the Coast. Today through Sunday, Hanna could produce periods of heavy rains with much of our Region seeing widespread amounts between 1 to 3 inches with isolated amounts of 8+ inches. Based on information from the NWS, these higher amounts should remain to our southwest; however, we will continue to monitor the conditions has the impacts could shift as Hanna approaches and moves onshore. As with any heavy rainfall in the Houston area, the Region could see some street ponding and rises in some of our creek and streams; however, the current forecasts do not call for significant, widespread street or stream flooding.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo

The majority of everyone’s focus continues to be TS Hanna, but we are all still watching TS Gonzalo that is continuing to move west toward the Caribbean. The NHC shows TS Gonzalo possibly becoming a Category 1 Hurricane as it approaches the Lesser Antilles; however, their forecast continues to show TS Gonzalo losing strength and dissipating as it moves south of the Dominican Republic.

Beyond Gonzalo

There is an additional disturbance off the Coast of Guinea near the Cabo Verde Islands. Currently, the NHC gives this system a 30% chance of moving across the Atlantic and becoming a Tropical System. It is still too early to tell how this system might develop and what impacts it might have on the United States, but we are continuing to watch this system in addition to Hanna and Gonzalo.

The District along with our District Engineer and Operator are continuing to monitor the conditions and changes in the forecast and are prepared to mobilize as needed. We encourage everyone to stay informed by visiting your favorite local weather source, including the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and West Gulf River Forecast Center. If you have not ready down so, please remember to sign up for Emergency Updates from Fort Bend County.

 

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 11.9. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

The main story for this week is the possibility of some tropical activity forming in and moving across the Gulf of Mexico this week. The exact impacts and locations are still uncertain, but the closest system will bring some much-needed rain to portions of southeast Texas. For the next 7 days, high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. The exact amount of precipitation from the tropical activity is unclear, but the 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) shows the lower portions of the Brazos River watershed receiving between 0.5 and 1.25 inches of rainfall over the next 7 days.

Tropical Outlook

From our partners at HCFCD, here is a summary of the two disturbances we are tracking:

  • System Closest to Texas Coast (NHC Disturbance No. 3): Tropical wave that has been moving across the Gulf of Mexico is located just off the upper TX coast this morning. Radar images from Lake Charles and Houston indicate that a weak area of surface low pressure has formed south of Sabine Pass and is moving toward the WNW. This feature will make landfall along the upper TX coast later today with a corresponding increase in showers and thunderstorms. Some of the rainfall will be heavy, especially near the coast and south of I-10. No additional development of this feature is likely before moving inland.
  • System North of Cuba (NHC Disturbance No. 1) : A tropical wave near eastern Cuba will move WNW into the SE Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, the central Gulf on Wednesday, and the NW Gulf Thursday into Friday. While the system is currently disorganized and there are no signs of any surface low pressure, conditions in the central and western Gulf of Mexico appear generally favorable for some slight development of this wave later this week. There is some weak model support in the global models and some of their ensemble runs that suggest weak low pressure may develop near the TX coast as the wave axis begins to move inland on Friday. NHC currently indicated a 20% chance of development Wed-Fri with this feature over the central and NW Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, periods of showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy rainfall will be possible Friday/Saturday along with increasing winds and seas near the coast and offshore.

With the current Tropical Activity, the District is coordinator with their Engineer and Operator who is watching the conditions for impacts to the District.

Please continue to watch your local forecasts throughout the week through trusted sources such as the National Weather ServiceWest Gulf River Forecast Center, and the Fort Bend County Office of Homeland Security & Emergency Management.

Reservoir Status

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 11.16. The Brazos River is slightly rising due to rainfall and releases that occurred upstream of Bryan/College Station over the past week or so. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

The excessive heat continues this week with limited to no chance for rain through the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 90s and lows in the mid to upper 70s. Based on the NWS 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), the Brazos River Watershed, including Fort Bend County, should see less than 0.1 inch of rainfall over the next 7 days.

Reservoir Status

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 9.37. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

We will start the week with slightly elevated rain chances (25% to 50%) with the highest chance for rain on Tuesday. The remainder of the week should include Sunny to Partly Cloudy Skies with highs in the mid to upper 90s and lows in the mid to upper 70s. Based on the NWS 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), the lower Brazos River Watershed, including Fort Bend County, should see less than ½ of rainfall with portions of the upper watershed potentially receiving up to 1.5 inches over the next 7 days.

Reservoir Status

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 10.7. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

After a round of heavy rainfall, this week will include warm and dry, but humid weather. Our high temperatures will hit the low to mid 90s with heat index values reaching between 100° and 105° through Thursday. Based on the NWS 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, the majority of the Brazos River Watershed should receive less than ½ inch of rainfall over the next 7 days.

Reservoir Status