Brazos River Update – 5/7/19 at 11:00 AM

Brazos River Forecast

Over the past 24 hours, we have seen the forecasts from Hempstead to Richmond lowered. As of this morning, Hempstead is forecasted to hit Gage Elevation 47 feet tomorrow morning with San Felipe hitting Gage Elevation 119.6 Thursday morning. In Richmond, the forecast has dropped 1 foot since yesterday morning and is currently showing Richmond hitting Gage Elevation 46.4 on Friday morning.

Rainfall Potential and Severe Weather Outlook

Fort Bend County had a relatively quiet night with the majority of precipitation staying primarily to our west and north. Overall those areas appeared to receive less than an inch with the average closer to 0.1 to 0.2 inches. That should change today, as we have increased chances for rain starting this afternoon. Based on the current forecasts, we have between a 60 to 70 percent chance for rain through the end of the day with possible rainfall amounts between 0.5 to 1.5 inches across the region.

The most severe weather is currently forecasted to start Wednesday with increased threats of damaging winds and hail. The Severe Weather Outlook for Wednesday shows Fort Bend County with a slight risk for this severe weather. Based on the current forecasts, portions of the Brazos River watershed could see an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain on Wednesday.

The biggest threat of rain continues to be Thursday through Sunday. There is still a good amount of uncertainty on the exact location and rainfall amounts toward the end of the week, but generally, much of the lower Brazos River watershed could see between 2 to 6 inches of rain through Sunday with some areas potentially receiving as much as 7 to 8 inches. We will be continuing to monitor the conditions and provide additional updates as we get closer to Thursday and confidence increases in the rainfall forecast.

With elevated levels and saturated soils, we recommend that everyone stay information by visiting the Fort Bend Office of Homeland Security & Emergency Management website and the National Weather Service Houston/Galveston website for updates as things develop.

Brazos River Update and Weekly Outlook- 5/6/19 at 10:00 AM

Brazos River Forecasts

Over the past 24 hours, we have seen only minor revisions to the forecasts along the Brazos River. As of this morning, the Brazos River in Hempstead is forecasted to peak around Gage 48.10 feet with San Felipe peaking around Gage 120.7 feet. The 9:25 AM update from the WGRFC is giving us a better idea of the potential crest height in Richmond based on current conditions. The forecast is showing the Brazos River reaching Gage 47.4 feet on Friday morning. The current forecast has as falling shortly after the peak; however, the additional rainfall received this week could potential impact the timing of the fall and how long we remain in Minor Flood Stage.

As we mentioned in our previous updates, we are continuing to monitor the next round of severe weather that will potentially bring additional heavy rains into our region. The first weather system is expected to start moving its way through the region today with estimated rainfall amounts between 0.5 to 2 inches over the next 24 hours. This wet trend will continue for the next 7 days, but at this moment there is low confidence in the exact timing and rainfall amounts. Based on the latest forecasts, over the next 7 days much of the lower Brazos River watershed could see widespread rainfall amounts between 5 to 6 inches with the greater Houston area seeing as much as 9 to 10 inches. We will be continually monitoring the conditions and providing additional updates as necessary. With elevated levels and saturated soils, we recommend that everyone stay information by visiting the Fort Bend Office of Homeland Security & Emergency Management website and the National Weather Service Houston/Galveston website for updates as things develop.

Brazos River Update – 5/5/19 at 10:00 AM

Brazos River Forecasts

Over the past 24 hours, we have seen the forecasts upstream of Richmond slightly fall. As of this morning, the Brazos River in Hempstead is forecasted to peak around Gage 48.5 feet with San Felipe peaking around Gage 120.6 feet. This is about 2.1 feet lower in Hempstead and about 1.5 feet lower in San Felipe since Saturday morning. The forecast for Richmond is continuing to show the Brazos River rising through the forecast window and is currently forecasted to hit Gage 47.5 feet on Friday morning. Based on this morning’s forecasts, it appears that we will hit near Moderate Flood Stage (Gage 48.0 feet).

Long term (Next 7 Days)

With the Brazos River rising to Minor Flood Stage, we are continuing to monitor another round of storms hitting east Texas. With elevated river levels and saturated soils, additional rainfall will potentially keep us elevated for the next couple of weeks. Today we should have another warm, sunny day, but it will be short lived as another round of severe weather begins late Monday night running through Tuesday. The NWS is showing the potential for much of the lower Brazos River Watershed receiving 1 to 2 inches of rainfall through Tuesday. This wet pattern could continue through most of the week with the potential for a total rainfall amount between 4 to 8 inches over the next 7 days.

Brazos River Update – 5/4/19 at 10:00 AM

Brazos River Forecasts

Over the past 24 to 48 hours much of the Brazos River Watershed from Waco to Hempstead has received widespread rainfall between 2 to 4 inches. Downstream of Hempstead, the observed totals between 1 to 2 inches. Based on the rain received, the WGRFC has updated their forecast for the Brazos River through Richmond. As of 8:48 AM this morning, the WGRFC has forecasted that the Brazos River could hit Gage Elevation 47.9 on Thursday morning. Please note that the current forecast does not necessary represent the peak in Richmond. Over the weekend we should gain a better understanding on water moving from the upper portions of the Watershed will make its way through Fort Bend County. We will continue to monitor the forecasts and provide another update tomorrow.

Long term (Next 7 Days)

In addition to rising levels along the Brazos River we are also watching the potential for additional rainfall over the next 7 days. Based on the current long range forecast, we should get a break from the rain with sunny to partly cloudy skies through Monday. Starting late Monday or Tuesday we could see the rain return taking us through next weekend. The heaviest rainfall is currently shown to our east; however, we could see much of the Brazos River watershed receive another 2 to 4 inches over the next 7 days. With soil moisture continuing to remain high and the current rising trend on the River, we will remain focused on the conditions and monitor for any changes.

Brazos River Update – 5/3/19 at 10:00 AM

There are two potential weather events that we are watching.

Near Term (Next 48 hours)

The NWS is continuing to show the potential for severe weather over the next 24 hours. Much of the lower Brazos River watershed, downstream of College Station has a slight risk of severe weather with the majority of the state of Texas with at least a marginal risk. The primary hazards include damaging winds, large hail, locally heavy rain, and isolated tornadoes. Much of the upper Brazos River watershed as seen between 1 to 2 inches over the past 24 hours with portions potentially receiving another 1 to 2 inches through Saturday. In Fort Bend County, we have seen most areas receive less than 0.5 inch over the past 24 hours. Based on the current forecasts, portions of the Houston area could see 1 to 3 inches through Saturday.

Long term (Next 7 Days)

Regardless of what the next 48 hours brings, we are watching the development of our next system that could have a significant impacts on the Brazos River Watershed. We should have more information over the weekend, which will be included in our Monday weekly outlook but here is a short summary. This morning’s forecast is showing the potential for the majority of the Brazos River Watershed seeing between 2 to 6 inches over the next 7 days. How this impacts levels on the Brazos River will all depend on what the lower watershed receives over the next 24 hours. Confidence in the current long range forecast is on the lower side but we will continue to monitor the conditions and provide updates as necessary.

Brazos River Forecasts

Based on the actual and forecasted rainfall over the next couple of days, the WGRFC is forecasting the Brazos River to hit Gage Elevation 41 feet in Richmond on Wednesday morning. Depending on how much additional rain we actually receive, we could see shifts in the forecast throughout the weekend.

Emergency Readiness Training

The Entire Board of LID 14 (Mr. Sujeeth Draksharam, Mr. Rashid Khalfe, and Mr. Shaizad A. Chatriwala), along with Fort Bend County Commissioner Precinct 4 Ken DeMerchant, and ABHR legal assistant Rachel Wooten participated with their computers and smart phones in the Fort Bend County Homeland Security & Emergency Management levee improvement district training exercise on Friday, April 26, 2019 in our community at the Avalon Clubhouse.

Listening intently and watching the data presented and on conference call with the District’s engineer, operator and attorney, the Directors and Commissioner DeMerchant trained to prepare for the upcoming hurricane season. The District is ensuring its Emergency Operations Plan is ready for emergencies.

The public is always welcome at our LID Board meetings and we are grateful to be serving our community.

April 29 – Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 37.37 feet (Action Stage). The WGRFC is forecasting the Brazos River in Richmond to hit Gage 38.3 feet on Tuesday, April 30.

This week

After several days of dry sunny weather, the next week could be a mix of cloudy, wet weather. Through Tuesday, we could see some partly sunny to cloudy skies with chances around 30%. Starting Wednesday, our rain chances increase to 70% with the possibility of heavy rain occurring Wednesday and Thursday. The location of the heaviest rain has shifted several times over the past 2 to 3 days, but the current forecast shows the heaviest rainfall occurring in northeast Texas with the potential for 4 to 5 inches. For the Brazos River watershed upstream of Hempstead, the forecasts are showing between 2 to 3 inches with the area downstream of Hempstead receiving 0.5 to 1.5 inches over the next 7 days. We will continue to watch for changes in these forecast, but it is possible that the Brazos River through Richmond could remain elevated in Action Stage, around Gage Elevation 30, through the beginning of next week.

Reservoir Status

Below is a summary of the current Reservoir Status.

Brazos River Update – 4/25/19 at 4:00 PM

Now that the system has moved on, we are getting a much clearer picture of how the Brazos River will respond to the rainfall received. In summary, the upper Brazos River (upstream of Waco) received widespread rainfall amounts between 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts over 6 inches. From Waco through Hempstead, the watershed received widespread rainfall amounts between 2 to 3 inches with some isolated amounts closer to 4 inches. Overall, the lower portion of the Brazos River (downstream of Hempstead) received less rainfall than anticipated with amounts less than 1 inch with many receiving less than 0.20 inches.

With the rainfall received upstream of Hempstead, we are going to see elevated levels along the Brazos River from College Station to Richmond. Based on the current forecast, the Brazos River in Richmond could hit Gage Elevation 42.5 feet on Tuesday afternoon. Please note that the Richmond forecast is the highest point at the end of the forecast window, which means this may or may not represent the final peak in Richmond.

Based on the extended weather forecasts, it appears that the watershed will get a minor break from the stormy weather with the next several days showing sunny to mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid to low 80s. This could take us through Monday with rain chances returning on Tuesday. The heaviest rainfall is currently in North Texas over the next 7 days with the upper portions of the watershed receiving 2 to 3 inches and the lower portions of the watershed receiving 0.25 to 1.5 inches. We will continue to monitor changes in the forecasts.

Brazos River Update – Week of April 8th

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 13.42 feet (Below Action Stage). Based on the rainfall received upstream of Richmond, the WGRFC has issued a forecast for the Brazos River in Richmond. As of 8:27 AM, the WGRFC is forecasting the Brazos River to enter Action Stage (Gage 20) on Wednesday and reach Gage Elevation 42.3 feet on Saturday morning.

Weekend Recap

Overall the lower portions of the watershed received slightly less rain than anticipated being on the lower side of the initial 1 to 3 inches of rainfall. In fort Bend County, we saw a few gages topping at around 1.5 inches, but the majority of the County saw around or less than 1 inch. Upstream of Hempstead, the watershed received between 1.5 to 3 inches over the weekend with a peak rainfall exceeding 5 inches to 6 inches in isolated areas upstream of Bryan/College Station.

This Week

After the weekend rain, this week includes sunny to mostly sunny skies with rain chances less than 20% through Friday. The sunny conditions appear to be short lived has we have the potential for another round of storms working through southeast Texas over the weekend. There is currently low confidence in the severity of the storms, but overall the forecasts are showing between 1 to 2 inches through Monday morning. We will continue to monitor the development of this system, especially with the current forecast of the Brazos River and provide updates as needed.

Reservoir Status

Summary of Current Reservoir Status (PDF)