Due to rainfall upstream of the District in the Brazos River watershed, we are anticipating elevated water levels in the Brazos River and possibly Ditch H. The current forecast is estimating the Brazos River level at the Richmond gauge to be 39.2 feet on Sunday, October 21, 2018. It is possible we could see Richmond gauge at or above 40 feet. The District’s operator and engineer are monitoring and will continue to monitor the Brazos River levels and update the District’s website as necessary.
For additional information regarding current Brazos River levels, you may visit the website of Fort Bend County Office of Emergency Management at http://fbcoem.org.
With the current rain throughout Texas and in our area, river projections have began to increase on the Brazos. Right now, projections are 38.4′ which doesn’t pose any threat to District’s levee systems. Based on what we are seeing and with the continued releases upstream, we will probably see a river crest in the low 40s which does seal off gravity flow to all pump stations. After speaking with the County, they believe it will probably stay up for an extended period of time (a week or so) until water levels throughout Texas can drain out. The District and LMS are preparing for a 40’ elevation on the river and going through our Action Stage protocol. Should the river reach 40′, we will pump any rainfall that occurs to make sure we are always at full storage internally. All pump stations are fully operational and ready to go should more rainfall come to the District. There are projections of 2-4” of rain over the next week, which is well under what our pump stations can handle. The District doesn’t anticipate having to run pumps for a long period of time to catch up on internal water levels.
We will continue to monitor the upcoming river heights and give provide updates on this site should things change.
Tropical cyclone formation remains possible for the NW Gulf of Mexico late this week.
Residents along the TX coast should closely monitor the progress of this system and have hurricane plans and kits in place.
There has been little change in organization of the tropical wave over the Caribbean Sea overnight. Sporadic deep convection continues to develop in an near what is most likely a mid level low pressure system. Thus far there have not been any surface observations to support any surface low pressure formation. Upper level winds remain fairly strong out of the WSW/W as the system is on the eastern side of a weakening upper level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico. As this upper trough weakens and the tropical wave axis moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico upper level winds will become somewhat more favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone.
The GFS, ECMWF, and CMC models either maintain an open tropical wave or attempt to close off a surface low pressure system along the wave axis in the Thursday and Friday period as the feature moves NW toward the TX coast. It is unclear at this point if the system will be able to close off a surface low, but development chances increase as it nears the TX coast late this week…so things can and will likely change quickly on Thursday and Friday.
Regardless of actual development of a closed low pressure system the main impacts appear to be heavy rainfall and potential flooding. Wet and soggy grounds are already in place over much of coastal TX and additional rainfall is likely both today and Wednesday. Deep tropical moisture with the tropical feature will begin to arrive on the TX coast late Friday with bands of heavy rainfall and gusty winds spreading along the TX coast Friday and into Saturday.
At the moment it is still too early to discuss specific impacts, but the threat for heavy rainfall and potential flooding late this week into this weekend along the entire TX coast is increasing. For now will leave tides, winds, and seas alone and await better trends in any center track and intensity of the feature. Even an open wave axis will likely produce 20-30kts across the NW Gulf waters. This could be a system where much of the adverse conditions will occur to the north and east of any actual surface center.
Forecast confidence toward the end of the week and weekend is low and residents along the TX coast should closely monitor forecasts over the next few days for changes.
Short Term (Tuesday)
Last night the NWS extended the Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM this evening. Based on the forecasts, the heaviest rains should be generally along and south of US-59. These wet conditions will stay with us through Saturday. Much of Fort Bend and Harris Counties could see another 1 to 2 inches today with a total of 2 to 3 inches over the next 7 days. As mentioned above these rainfall amounts could vary depending on the development of Invest 95L.
The FORT BEND COUNTY L.I.D. #14 will hold a public hearing on a proposed tax rate for the tax year 2018 on September 10, 2018 at 3:00 P.M. at One Avalon Place, Sugar Land, Texas 77479. Your individual taxes may increase or decrease, depending on the change in the taxable value of your property in relation to the change in taxable value of all other property and the tax rate that is adopted.
FOR the proposal: Jeff Anderson, Herbert Krog and Sujeeth Draksharam
AGAINST the proposal: None
PRESENT and not voting: None
Notice of Taxpayers’ Right to Rollback Election
If taxes on the average residence homestead increase by more than eight percent, the qualified voters of the district by petition may require that an election be held to determine whether to reduce the operation and maintenance tax rate to the rollback tax rate under Section 49.236(d), Water Code.
Bob Leared Interests, 713-932-9011
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) approved FBCLID No. 14’s request for a Letter of Map Amendment (LOMA) on August 3, 2018. The intent of the LOMA was to remove the Zone “A” designation from all 106 lots that back up to the lakes in the Gardens of Avalon and Waters of Avalon sections. This document can be referred to by any resident affected by the inaccurate mapping that is looking to obtain flood insurance on their property. As mentioned in the documentation provided by FEMA, all of these property owners are eligible for a Preferred Risk Flood Insurance Policy. The approval of the LOMA is effective immediately.
The Letter of Map Amendment was filed on behalf of the District to correct a mapping error by FEMA that incorrectly shows rear lots being in mapped Zone “A” within internal lakes. We have submitted the request to correct the error on behalf of the District since several residents have been told by insurance carriers that their properties are in the floodplain.