Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 10.38. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, we could see a rise in the Brazos River through Fort Bend County; however, at this time no flooding along the Brazos River is anticipated.

This Week

A tropical disturbance is currently located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico with a 10% chance of development. Regardless of its development, the region is expected to receive heavy rainfall throughout the week. The current forecasts are showing the potential for widespread rainfall amounts between 3 to 6 inches through Thursday with isolated areas seeing amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches. We will see showers starting to move through the region Monday and Tuesday with the heaviest rainfall potentially falling Wednesday and Thursday. The current forecasts are not calling for major flooding to occur; however, rainfall intensities of 2 to 3 inches per hour with isolated areas of 3 to 4 inches per hour could cause some localized street and stream flooding. We will continue to monitor the conditions throughout the week and provide updates as needed.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

In addition to the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center is continuing to watch Hurricane Humberto and another disturbance in the central Atlantic.

Reservoir Status

Below is a summary of the current Reservoir Status.

Eastern Gulf Tropical Disturbance

The National Hurricane Center is watching the potential for a tropical system in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. As of this morning, this disturbance has a 30% of development over the next few days as in moves toward the western Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, this system could bring widespread rainfall Monday through Wednesday with the heaviest rainfall possible occurring south of I-10. The rainfall amounts are still unclear but some of the forecasts are showing the potential for 2 to 6 inches through Wednesday. The final amount of rainfall will depend on the conditions as the system moves toward southeast Texas. We will continue to monitor the forecasts and provide updates as needed.

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 10.54. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River is anticipated.

This Week

Some were lucky enough to receive rainfall this morning; however, the majority was located within eastern Fort Bend County with a peak total of just over ¾ inch in the Sugar Land area. The current forecasts are showing additional rain chances (between 20 to 50%) this afternoon through Wednesday with highs in the low 90s. After Wednesday, the hot, dry weather returns as our rain chances drop below 20% with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Not including this morning’s rainfall, the 7 day forecast is showing a total of less than ½ of rainfall for most of the lower Brazos River watershed, including Fort Bend County.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

The National Hurricane Center is currently watching 2 disturbances in the Atlantic along with Tropical Storm Gabrielle; however, at this time there are no threats to the western Gulf of Mexico.

Reservoir Status

Below is a summary of the current Reservoir Status.

Notice of Public Hearing on Tax Rate

The Fort Bend Levee Improvement District #14 will hold a public hearing on a proposed tax rate for the tax year 2019 on September 9, 2019 at 3:00 pm at Avalon Recreation Center, One Avalon Place, Sugar Land TX 77479. Your individual taxes may increase or decrease, depending on the change in the taxable value of your property in relation to the change in taxable value of all other property and the tax rate that is adopted.

Notice of Public Hearing on Tax Rate (PDF)

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 12.14. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River is anticipated as drought conditions continue to rise with limited precipitation in the forecast.

This Week

Drought conditions continue to increase as excessive heat and limited to no precipitation has fallen over the past couple weeks. The first part of this week will remain hot with highs near the upper 90s with the potential to hit 100°. A “weak summertime cold front” approaches the region on Wednesday and arrives on Thursday. This will increase our rain chances and bring temperatures down to the mid-90s. Overall, the forecast is showing less than ½ inch of rain over the next 7 days.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

The National Hurricane Center does not anticipate any tropical development over the next 2 to 5 days.

Reservoir Status

Below is a summary of the current Reservoir Status.

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 13.78. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River is anticipated.

This Week

The extended forecast is showing a continuation of our weekend weather with highs in the low to mid 90s with relatively low rain changes over the next several days. Our highest chance for rain is Tuesday and Wednesday; however, overall the forecasts are showing less than ½ inch over the next 7 days.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

The National Hurricane Center is giving a tropical disturbance a 20% chance of forming over the next 5 days. The disturbance is currently over the eastern Caribbean Sea and is expected to move west-northwestward across the Caribbean Sea and the Greater Antilles during the next few days. At this time, it is anticipated that this tropical wave could move toward Florida before making a north-northeasterly turn avoiding the western Gulf of Mexico.

Reservoir Status

Below is a summary of the current Reservoir Status.

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 16.36 and could remain relatively low and level into the weekend.

This Week

Over the next several days our region should see mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with highs in the low to mid 90s. The NWS is showing the potential for some isolated showers over the next few days, but overall Fort Bend County and much of the Brazos River Watershed should see less than 0.25 inches over the next 7 days. It is still to early to tell, but we could see our rain chances increase early next week.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

The National Hurricane Center along with the Weather Prediction Center is continuing to issue advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Barry, which is located over southern Missouri City. Other than Post-Tropical Cyclone Barry, Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Reservoir Status

Below is a summary of the current Reservoir Status.

Gulf System Update 07/11 @ 8AM

Over the past 24 hours, Potential Tropical Cyclone Two has continued to slowly develop and is expected to become a tropical depression later today. Based on this morning’s forecast, it could develop into a Tropical Storm on Friday and possibly a Hurricane late Friday or Saturday morning. There still remains some uncertainty in the ultimate track; however, confidence continues to grow that the system will make landfill near the central part of Louisiana.  Flooding as already occurred in portions of Louisiana with an additional 10 to 15 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches as the result of this system expected over the next several days.
 
Locally, the impacts to Fort Bend County and the areas west of Houston should be minimal. This morning’s forecast is showing our area receiving less than one inch through Tuesday morning. We will continue to monitor for any changes in the track and intensity which can have an impact on final rainfall amounts.
 
Although this system is showing signs of being less impactful to our area, we continue to encourage residents to:

Gulf System Update 07/10 @ 8AM

The National Hurricane Center has increased the chances of Invest 92L developing into a tropical system to 90% over the next 2 days. Yesterday, we saw a shift in the track toward central Louisiana; however, this morning, the modeling data showed a possible shift in the track back to the west closer to Cameron, Louisiana. There are several factors playing a role in the development of this system so there continues to be a considerable amount of uncertainty in the ultimate track.

Based on this morning’s forecasts, the heaviest impacts are still shown to be east of the Greater Houston area with the potential for 10+ inches along the Louisiana Coast with Fort Bend County possibly receiving 1 to 3 inches through Monday. Final rainfall amounts are dependent upon the ultimate path of this system so these estimates are subject to change.

Now that the area of low pressure is in the Gulf, the system has started to become better organized and will continue to do so as it drifts west. As it develops, we could see additional changes in the forecasts, especially over the next 12 to 36 hours. All residents are encouraged to:

Gulf System Update 07/09 @ 8AM

The National Hurricane Center continues to give Invest 92L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical system, possibly a tropical depression or tropical storm. Environmental conditions and water temperatures are expected to be favorable for tropical cyclone development once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico and moves westward across the northern Gulf late Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight the track of the disturbance has generally shifted back to our east possibly moving north along the Texas-Louisiana border this weekend. It is still too early to determine the exact location and magnitude/intensity as several factors could alter the ultimate path and development of this system. Based on this morning’s forecast, the heaviest rainfall potential (9+ inches) is located in western Louisiana with Fort Bend County potentially receiving 1 to 4 inches over the weekend.

Changes in the forecasts could/will continue to vary over the next 24 to 48 hours so all residents are encouraged to: