Weekly Brazos River Outlook, Possible System in the Gulf

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 18.16 feet and continues to fall.

This Week and the Tropics

We are continuing to watch for the potential development of a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. Overnight the threat of development along the Louisiana and Texas coasts have increased; however, at this time there is still a fair amount of uncertainty on the development and its location. At this moment, the NWS has not made any changes in our weekly forecast. Residents, especially those along the Texas and Louisiana coasts, are encouraged to closely monitor the progress of this system as changes in the forecasts could vary over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Based on the current forecasts, the start of this week could be a continuation of the weekend with minimal rain chances and highs hitting the mid 90’s. Our rain chances increase toward the end of the week, but overall the NWS is showing the potential for less than a 0.5 inch over the next 7 days. We will continue to monitor the conditions and changes in the forecasts.

Reservoir Status

Below is a summary of the current Reservoir Status. Overall we continue to see levels in the reservoir fall with the majority of reservoirs around 100% capacity. The only exception is Lake Somerville which continues to be near 200% capacity.

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 23.33 feet (Action Flood Stage) and continues to fall. Based on the forecast, we could drop below Action Stage over the weekend.

This Week

Over the next few days we could continue to see some isolated showers and thunderstorms pop up, but overall the next several days should be partly cloudy to sunny skies with highs around 90°. The NWS is showing the potential for less than a 0.5 inch over the next 7 days.

Reservoir Status

Below is a summary of the current Reservoir Status.

Brazos River / Weather Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 32.14 feet (Action Flood Stage) and is forecasted remain in Action Stage into next week.

This Week

Overnight portions of the Brazos River Watershed received between 1 to 3 inches of rainfall. Based on the rainfall received, we will continue to remain in Acton Stage at the Richmond Gage for an extended period of time. After today, our rain chances diminish with partly cloudy skies and increasingly warmer temperatures throughout the remainder of the week. Rain chances could return the weekend; however, rainfall amounts vary between the various forecasts. The current Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) prepared by NOAA is showing less than 0.5 inches over the next 7 days for most of the lower Brazos River Watershed, including Fort Bend County.

Reservoir Status

Below is a summary of the current Reservoir Status.

June 10 – Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 36.89 feet (Action Flood Stage) and is forecasted to remain elevated above Richmond Gage 35.00 feet through Saturday morning.

This Week

Based on this morning’s forecast, we should continue to see sunny to partly cloudy skies with minimal rain chances, less than 25%, over the next several days. The extended forecast is showing the potential for rain returning this weekend, but the forecasts are showing less than 0.25 inches of rain across the region over the next 7 days.

Reservoir Status

Below is a summary of the current Reservoir Status.

Brazos River Update – 06/05/2019 @ 9 AM

The region continues to remain in a Flash Flood Watch until 7am Thursday morning, with portions of Wharton and Fort Bend Counties in a Flash Flood Watch through 9:45 am today.

Since early this morning, portions of Fort Bend and Wharton Counties have seen a significant amount of rainfall. Preliminary rainfall amounts as high as 9 to 10+ inches in parts of Wharton County has caused a rapid rise on the San Bernard River as well as several creeks and streams. Along the Brazos River watershed we have seen preliminary rainfall amounts between 1 to 4 inches with the heavier amounts downstream of I-10 through central Fort Bend County. The heaviest rainfall should move through the region by this afternoon, but the extended forecast is showing a 40% to 50% chance for rain through Friday morning.

Based on the rainfall received plus the additional rainfall forecasted over the next 24 hours, the WGRFC has updated their forecast for the Brazos River. Based on the 8:10 AM forecast, the Brazos River in Richmond could hit Gage Elevation 37.6 feet on Sunday, June 9. Currently, the Brazos River in Richmond is at Gage Elevation 34.58 feet.

We encourage everyone to stay informed through the National Weather Service and Fort Bend County Office of Homeland Security & Emergency Management.

Severe Weather Update – 06/04/2019 @ 8 AM

Although the National Hurricane Center has reduced the development of Invest 91L to a 40% chance over the next 48 hours, this system will bring excess rainfall across the region over then next couple of days. Based on the conditions, the NWS will place our region, including Fort Bend County, in a Flash Flood Watch from 1 AM Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday.

Based on this morning’s forecast, the region could see widespread rainfall amounts between 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals up to 6 inches. Rainfall rates from this storm could reach 2 to 3 inches per hour which can cause rapid street flooding and creek rises in some areas. As stated by the NWS, these forecasts are subject to change due to the environmental conditions throughout the event. We will continue to monitor and provide updates when possible, but we encourage everyone to stay informed through the National Weather Service and Fort Bend County Office of Homeland Security & Emergency Management as changes in these forecast could occur within a relatively short period of time.