There remains significant uncertainty the track for Tropical Depression No. 22. We should anticipate more changes in its forecast, but currently the Greater Houston area is within the Cone of Uncertainty. The forecast shows TD 22 moving in a NW direction over the western Gulf of Mexico as it strengthens into a Tropical Storm (Wilfred) today or possibly tomorrow morning. By Saturday, conditions could push TD 22 in a western direction toward the south Texas coast potentially reaching Hurricane Strength as it stalls off the south Texas Coast. This storm due to its movement could bring some Tropical Storm Force Winds t the central and south Texas coastal areas, but water (storm surge and rain) is the biggest threat to this system. These impacts could start as early as Sunday night into Monday morning as squalls begin to approach the coast. The heaviest amounts of rain are currently along and off the coast with 10 to 12 inches and widespread amounts in the 15 to 20 inches over the Gulf of Mexico. The current 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) has the western portions of our Region, including Fort Bend, Harris, and Waller Counties, possibly receiving between 2 to 6 inches over the next 7 days. The majority of this rainfall could occur Sunday evening into Thursday morning. Based on the uncertainty, these rainfall amounts will likely change.
As mentioned, there is currently low confidence in the overall track and development of TD 22 and changes in this forecast are possible. The District’s Engineer and Operator are continuing to monitor the conditions. The District’s facilities are operational and ready if needed.
We encourage everyone to stay informed by visiting your favorite local weather source, including the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and West Gulf River Forecast Center. If you have not ready done so, please remember to sign up for Emergency Updates from Fort Bend County.